In today’s special edition, we analyse the results of the Portuguese election and its implications for the EU. Desfrutem!

Portugal turns right, destination still unknown

In a pivotal turn of events, Portugal’s centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) clinched victory in Sunday’s general election, as declared by its leader, Luis Montenegro. However, uncertainties loom over governance dynamics, with Montenegro reiterating his refusal to negotiate with the far-right Chega party.

Chega’s remarkable surge in parliamentary representation, quadrupling to at least 48 lawmakers in the 230-seat legislature, has significantly altered the political landscape, tipping the balance in favour of the combined right.

This outcome reflects a broader trend of right-wing ascension across Europe, marking a notable departure for Portugal, which had long been considered resistant to the rise of right-wing populism. The implications extend beyond national borders, with expectations of far-right gains in the upcoming European elections in June.

Montenegro’s rival, Pedro Nuno Santos of the left-leaning Socialist Party (PS), conceded defeat following a narrow margin of votes. Santos dismissed the prospect of supporting AD’s platform, emphasising opposition to across-the-board tax cuts.

Addressing jubilant supporters early Monday, Montenegro stressed the importance of parliamentary responsibility and honouring the will of the Portuguese people in forming the new government.

While awaiting a formal invitation from President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa to form a government, Montenegro remains firm on his pledge not to seek support from right-wing populists. However, he expressed concerns about potential obstructionism from the PS and Chega.

The AD’s victory, along with conservative allies in Madeira, secures at least 79 seats, surpassing PS’s 77.

The PS, trailing in opinion polls since the resignation of Prime Minister Antonio Costa amid corruption allegations, now prepares to lead the opposition, vowing to counterbalance Chega’s influence.

Chega’s campaign centred on anti-establishment rhetoric and promises to combat corruption and immigration, reflects growing discontent with mainstream politics. Leader Andre Ventura asserts a popular mandate for cooperation with AD, warning of political instability should negotiations be rebuffed.

In the election campaign the leader of the Democratic Alliance, Luis Montenegro, had ruled out forming a majority with Chega. On Sunday night, the leader of the far-right party, André Ventura, rejected Montenegro’s ‘no is no’ and called for a right-wing coalition including his party, arguing that it would be ‘irresponsible’ not to involve Chega in government. Ventura spoke of ‘a historic night’ in which ‘bipartisanship in Portugal has ended’.

The outgoing Foreign Minister, Socialist João Gomes Cravinho, said that a political ‘instability’ scenario opens up for Portugal. Portugal ‘comes out more fragile’ from these elections and will have to return to elections ‘in six months, or a year or two,’ Gomes Cravinho said. Economist Carlos Guimarães Pinto, deputy of Iniciativa Liberal, said he hoped ‘that in six months there will be a repeat vote’. Premier Antonio Costa attributed Chega’s success to two years of an inflationary crisis and the brutal rise in interest rates, which ‘created a general malaise’. According to the outgoing premier, ‘it was a breeding ground for populism’.

How do you say grand coalition in Portuguese? ‘Bloco central’. While last night’s ballot count prefigured a substantial tie between the centre-right Democratic Alliance and the Socialist Party, some analysts began to imagine an unprecedented solution for the next government in Lisbon. A government between the main centre-right party, the Social Democratic Party, and the main centre-left party, the Socialist Party, has never been tried since the Carnation Revolution. According to sociologist António Barreto, who was a Socialist deputy and Minister of Agriculture in the government of Mario Soares between 1876 and 1978, ‘there are only two possible solutions, without the usual agreements: coalition or alliance between the Democratic Alliance and Chega; or central bloc between the Social Democratic Party and the Socialist Party.’

Reflecting on the shifting political landscape, concerns abound regarding potential instability and the question mark on the credibility and the reliability of the far-right in a coalition government. Many attribute the surge of Chega to societal grievances, including housing crises, low wages, healthcare challenges, and perceived corruption within mainstream parties.

Despite challenges, Portugal has sustained economic growth and fiscal discipline under Socialist leadership, earning praise from international stakeholders. Expectations remain that the AD will uphold this trajectory, albeit amid a recalibrated political landscape.

As Portugal navigates this new political terrain, observers remain vigilant for its broader implications on European politics and governance.

The emergence of the Democratic Alliance (AD) and the significant rise of the far-right Chega party in Portugal’s political landscape could have several broader implications on European politics and governance.

Portugal’s historically centrist political landscape has been seen as an outlier compared to the rise of right-wing populism in other European countries. The success of AD and Chega signals a potential shift towards more polarised politics in Portugal, mirroring trends recently seen in other European nations, like The Netherlands.

The success of far-right parties in Portugal’s national elections could foreshadow similar gains for right-wing populist parties in European Parliament elections. Europe Elects published the new projections for seats in the European Parliament based on polls released in the member states conducted during February. The trends of the previous months are confirmed, with a clear advance of the sovereigntist right-wing group European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the far-right group Identity and Democracy (ID, to which Chega is affiliated). The EPP is expected to remain the leading group with 181 seats, one less than five years ago. The Socialists and Democrats would lose 14 seats, stopping at 140 elected. The far-right of ID should become the third group with 91 seats (18 more than in 2019), followed by the ECR with 83 seats and the strongest progression (21 more MEPs). The Renew Liberals would drop to fifth place with 82 seats (26 fewer), followed by the Greens with 49 elected (25 fewer). Finally, the Left group would gain four seats to 45 elected. This could lead to a more fragmented European Parliament and potentially influence the direction of EU policies on issues such as immigration, sovereignty, and economic integration.

The necessity for coalitions, as demonstrated by the uncertain governing situation in Portugal and the ongoing standstill situation in The Netherlands, could become more common in European politics. With the rise of smaller parties and the fragmentation of voter support, forming stable governments may require broader coalitions that span ideological divides, able to challenge the political concept of the cordon sanitaire, so far applied – where possible – at the national level and in the European Parliament.