In today’s edition, we analyse some crucial challenges the EU leadership needs to face when measuring its ambitions with the enlargement project. Enjoy!

The Enlargement Week: Challenges ahead for the EU leadership

Yesterday, the European Commission published its report on the enlargement package on the progress Ukraine and the other states holding the candidate status have made towards joining the block.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spent part of the last months touring the candidate countries ahead of the progress report: after visiting Moldova the previous month, Von der Leyen travelled to the Western Balkans last week before paying a surprise visit to Kyiv last weekend.

Von der Leyen’s favourable words all over these visits worked much as an anticipation of yesterday’s report’s overall general positive outlook.

In a drive for enlargement accelerated by Russia’s war in Ukraine, the report suggested the start of formal accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova and granting candidate status to Georgia while opening access negotiations with Bosnia Herzegovina once a list of conditions is fulfilled.

Notwithstanding the good intentions of all the parties, the enlargement of the European Union has historically been a complex and multifaceted process that has brought various benefits and challenges. While expansion has increased the EU’s reach and influence, especially in former Soviet countries, it has also presented numerous difficulties and new challenges for the block.

Let’s try together to make some order among the significant challenges the European Union must face when measuring its ambitions with the enlargement project.

Economic Disparities: One of the primary challenges is dealing with the economic differences between existing and prospective member states. The financial gaps between wealthier and poorer countries pose significant challenges regarding integration, economic convergence, and stability within the Union. This dynamic is already visible within current member states, where a deeper economic integration does not involve de facto income convergence. The current trends in income convergence within the EU reveal three distinct patterns: firstly, a notable convergence among Member States, primarily influenced by East-West dynamics since the early 2000s. Secondly, in both established and recent EU Member States, numerous Southern regions faced challenges in keeping up with the overall EU progress. Lastly, the Southeast member States experienced significant internal income disparity, a trend similarly observed in all new Eastern Member States. This pattern may persist in the short term if additional Eastern states become part of the Union.

Institutional Adaptation: Each new member state brings a different political and administrative culture, often requiring changes in EU institutions and decision-making processes. Adapting to accommodate these diverse interests while maintaining the EU’s functionality and efficiency is a significant challenge. This is evident for every country entering the European Union, from the necessary adjustments in EU voting mechanisms to the efforts to bring a new legal system in line with EU laws regarding major areas like competition, agriculture, and consumer protection.

Cultural and Social Differences: Enlargement introduces cultural and social diversity, which can lead to challenges in creating a unified European identity. Differences in languages, traditions, and societal norms can complicate the process of harmonising policies and fostering a sense of unity among member states. In the current parliamentary term (2019–present), the von der Leyen Commission has promoted the overarching concept of ‘Our European Way of Life’ to strengthen mechanisms to ensure member states respect the rule of law. However, recent developments in member states such as Poland, Hungary, and Malta have shown that appointing a dedicated Commissioner to oversee this process (currently, the Greek Margaritis Schinas) has not eliminated friction between member states and the European Commission.

Budgetary Concerns: Enlargement increases the financial burden on existing member states, as more resources are needed to support and develop the economies of new entrants. Much literature has already been produced on the eventual costs of the enlargement, with consequences on the distributions of states between EU contributors and EU beneficiaries. Harmonising and finding a balance on this aspect can be considered in its own right as one of the biggest challenges the European Union will face.

EU Cohesion and Decision-Making: A larger EU means more divergent interests and complex decision-making processes. Finding common ground among a larger number of members becomes increasingly challenging, potentially slowing down policymaking and creating difficulties in reaching consensus. The High Representative (HR) role will be even more crucial in this respect. The HR is one of the EU’s most important roles. Current HR Josep Borrell is the head and chair of the Foreign Affairs Council when foreign ministers from the 27 Member States meet and decide on the EU’s external action. More importantly, the High Representative represents the EU in the international sphere and conducts the EU’s foreign affairs attributed to his role. However, the unitary representation of the Union remains a topic of controversy. Many stress that, on the one hand, the role of the HR assures a more identifiable leadership for third countries and organisations; on the other hand, its power is limited to the Common Foreign and Security Policy and will sometimes run into competition with the Commission, the Council, and even member states.

Public Support and Perception: Enlargement may impact public perception and support for the EU project, especially if the benefits of expansion need to be clearly communicated. While historically, the possibility of self-projecting within the European Union has proved to be a catalyst for change in the perception of public opinion within former Soviet countries, this ’round of enlargement’ will require a double effort: first, on public opinion in the candidate countries; secondly, on public opinion in the member states, where favourable views of the EU have dropped in some places since 2022.

Overall, the enlargement of the European Union is a complex project and a crucial challenge if the block wants to gain in relevance in the current multipolar world. Difficult times call for courageous choices and leadership that knows how to govern and convey the change in a positive sense. We sincerely hope this is the case for the European Union.