In today’s special edition, we offer you an analysis of the outcome of the Slovakian general elections and what changes (or not) for the European Union. Enjoy!
You know it’s thriller, (Socialist) thriller night
They say, “Sometimes they come back.” Well, get ready for the comeback of a lifetime. Robert Fico, the Viktor Orbán of Bratislava, is back in the spotlight for the third time. With a 23% lead in Saturday’s elections, his Smer party is making waves and confirming all the pre-election buzz.
It’s all happening in Slovakia’s political arena. The liberal Progressive Slovakia party couldn’t quite make an exploit, stopping at 18%, while Peter Pellegrini’s Hlas secured 14.7%. But here’s the twist: Fico’s fate might rest in Pellegrini’s hands. Smer needs two more allies to clinch power, and Hlas might provide 27 seats. But will they need an unexpected alliance with the far-right?
Hold your beer for more. After the 2022 Ukraine aggression, Vladimir Putin may have just secured his first Western election (Pyrrhic) victory. Now in the lead, Fico wasted no time reaffirming his pro-Russian stance.
“People in Slovakia have bigger problems than Ukraine,” Fico said, announcing that he would do everything possible to “bring peace and stop the deaths. We will continue to send humanitarian aid to Ukraine, but we will not change our mind about arms supplies”.
This is the same line as the Hungarian premier, Viktor Orbán, who issued a triumphalist tweet yesterday. “Guess who’s back! Congratulations to Robert Fico on his indisputable victory at the Slovak parliamentary elections. Always good to work together with a patriot. I look forward to it!” Orbán tweeted.
Fico’s potential third return to power has all the ingredients to become a real headache for the European Socialist Party and its parliamentary group of Socialists and Democrats, but not for the European Union. The President of the European Socialists Stefan Löfven’s warning of expulsion proceedings, adds another layer of drama to this socialist political thriller. Are we about to witness a high-stakes showdown within the socialist family?
On the other hand, Fico’s return should not set alarm bells ringing in the EU. Populist leaders can’t be underestimated, and the EU knows it. But even with one more Orbán-like leader, the EU will remain committed to supporting Ukraine. Moreover, notwithstanding Fico’s threat to stop sending weapons to Kyiv, Bratislava has already delivered everything its military could spare. Therefore, Fico’s rhetoric on the Russian invasion of Ukraine has all that is needed to be just an annoying background noise.
Speaking of promises, as the populist tradition commands, Fico promised his voters an economic turnaround over the entire election campaign — and more social spending. Getting there won’t be possible without help from the EU, including the €6 billion in recovery-fund money Brussels has earmarked for the country. We have already witnessed Orbán enjoyable silence when it came to the EU’s giving the green light to the Hungarian Recovery Plan or to approve its judicial reform. Your storyteller is convinced that Fico won’t perform better than his old friend Viktor.
And now, Poland is on the radar.
