Today’s special edition gives some scenarios for Spain’s political future after yesterday’s general election. Enjoy our analysis!
Taking the old bull by the horns
On Sunday, Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s Popular Party (PP) became the strongest political force in Spain’s national election. Still, it fell short of securing a majority of seats in parliament and looks unlikely to be able to govern with the far-right VOX.
Two things happened that made this possible. First, Santiago Abascal’s VOX party shrank its share of seats in parliament compared to 2019 (12,4% vs. 15,1%). Despite the unexpected success in May’s local elections, Spaniards feared the far right would return to government for the first time since the death of dictator Francisco Franco in 1975, denying a political experiment modelled on what happened in Italy after last October’s election that brought Giorgia Meloni to Palazzo Chigi.
Secondly, Prime Minister Pedro Sànchez (PSOE) has displayed an undisputable ability to engineer a late swing during the final days of his campaign and deny his right-wing opponents a majority in parliament.
While the centre-right PP won the most seats, the right-wing bloc now has only 169 seats out of the 176 needed to oust the 51-year-old Socialist Prime Minister.
Now your storyteller envisages three possible scenarios:
- Facing the political deadlock, The King may call for a new general election after summer, trying to deploy the rhetoric of useful voting against the far-left Sumar party (which yesterday secured 31 seats by arriving fourth).
- Any chance for Sánchez to remain in office and form a minority government would need the support of Catalonia’s pro-independence forces — but this time, not just of the left-wing ERC (which enabled the current government by abstaining), but also of Junts, the party of self-exiled Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont, although both parties suffered significant losses on Sunday.
- Feijóo could advocate for a PP-Socialist tie-up, arguing such a grand coalition would boost much-needed reforms, allowing a government that would not be “hostage” to pro-independence Catalan or Basque parties.
Political uncertainty may roil Spanish assets in the short term, according to several hedge funds which last week warned that an inconclusive vote would be the worst outcome for investors. In the medium term, this standstill may push both Sànchez and Feijòo to find an agreement and form a stable grand coalition government. However, we all know politics is a fluid matter, just like human behaviour.
Balance of the evening: the Partido Popular came first but did not win. Paradoxically, Sànchez (PSOE) has a better chance of forming a government than Feijòo. The game is still uphill, but the election result has turned the cards dealt by the polls on the eve of the election. Credit to the bullfighter Pedro, who in one way or another seems to have once again found a way to ‘matte’ the bull in the arena.
Starting today, it will be up to politics to find a solution to the Iberian rebus. We will follow developments. Of course, together.
