B&K Newsletter: Across the Finnish line

From Donald Trump’s incrimination to the weekend’s elections marathon to a new face in the NATO family and the European tour to China – This is what the Continent has been talking about this week.

Donald Trumped

It’s official: former U.S. President – and wanna-be again – Donald Trump was charged (and pleaded not guilty) in a Manhattan court with 34 criminal counts of falsifying business records, with a trial expected to start in January 2024. Prosecutors allege Trump concealed hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential campaign – you can see the full indictment here. The charges carry a maximum sentence of four years in prison, but it wouldn’t stop Trump’s running for President again, as there is no “explicit prohibition”. Trump returned to his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida immediately after his apparition to the court, addressing hundreds of supporters and calling to “save our country”. The show must go on.

European Elections Rally

All over the last weekend, Europe faced three significant elections. In Finland, former Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s Social Democrats succumbed to the conservative National Coalition Party of Petteri Orpo and the far-right Finns party. Now it’s up to Orpo to start talks with other parties to form a coalition in the parliament. Will Orpo look left or right for ways of bringing things together? That remains to be seen.

In Bulgaria, citizens decided not to decide between the former PM Boyko Borisov and the pro-Western coalition led by Kiril Petkov. On Sunday, for the fifth time in two years, no clear majority came out from the ballot box, leaving the country with two unappealing alternatives: a sixth election or a technical government. The only winner of this uncertainty is the nationalist, pro-Russian party “Renaissance” led by Kostadin Kostadinov, which gathered 14 per cent of preferences from the previous 5 per cent score in the elections that preceded the start of Putin’s war against Ukraine.

And in Montenegro, former Economy Minister Jakov Milatovic managed to dethrone Milo Dukanovic after more than three decades of rule. Milatovic, who campaigned on an anti-corruption, pro-EU platform, won around 60 per cent of the preferences and promised to project the country into the EU family within the next five years.

Across the Finnish line

According to statistics, Finland is considered one of the safest countries in the world. After this week, this reputation can only improve. As a direct consequence of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the Scandinavian country officially became the 31st member of NATO on Tuesday. Before the war in Ukraine, the likelihood of Finland joining NATO was extremely low, as the country remained neutral during the Cold War and after joining the European Union in 1995. The Finnish Defence Forces are one of the most combat-ready armies in Europe, with artillery capacity exceeding Poland, Germany, Norway and Sweden combined. The result of Putin’s mirabilia is a new 1340-kilometre Russian border with a NATO nation, doubling the Russia-NATO border. Ouch! From Moscow, Putin’s gang is reciting the same plot as usual: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov advised NATO not to send weapons and military technology to Finland if the block wants to avoid further actions.

Meanwhile, for-the-very-first-time trembling leadership of The Reis Erdogan is still blocking Sweden’s NATO application, urging the country to clamp down on the Kurdistan Workers’ Party and allow extraditions demanded by Ankara. May is coming.

PeXimism

Last week, the European pilgrimage to the court of the Chinese President Xi Jinping started with the visit of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez to Beijing. In the 45-minute meeting with Xi, little or nothing was achieved on Ukraine, with Xi reiterating the usual empty formulas over “Ukraine’s right to exist” but not indulging in details about the status of Donbas, Crimea and other Ukrainian territories invaded by Russian forces.

This week, it is up to French President Emmanuel Macron and President of the EU Commission Ursula Von der Leyen to try to make something out of the long travel. Macron is visiting China with an army of top managers from Alstom, Airbus, LVMH, BNP Paribas, and Michelin, accompanied by Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire, that in a revival of the Colbertism, wants to follow China (and the U.S.) in favouring local products via public procurement (aka subsides). However, now that the world is watching how Beijing will play its hand in Russia, Macron hopes he can sway Xi with some personal charm and his French accent.

The real elephant in the room is Ursula Von der Leyen, who is not in the mood to mince words. After her hard-hitting speech, Von der Leyen clarified that her focus would be de-risking Europe’s dependency on an increasingly “assertive” Beijing. What a beautiful smile, President Biden! Rendez-vous to the next week.

Your favourite storyteller and everyone in B&K Agency wishes you and your dearest happy Easter holidays!

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