In today’s special edition, we try to sketch Wagner’s future and offer the reader a – different – obituary in memory of Yevgeny Prigozhin. Enjoy!

Get Zar or die trying

“When you come at the king, you best not miss. This warning from one of the ‘gangsters’ in the American series The Wire has inspired the analyses of the international press in the wake of the presumed death of Yevgeny Prigozhin. It must be said that the disappearance of Vladimir Putin’s ‘chef’ has all the ingredients of Hollywood fiction.

On 23 June, the leader of the paramilitary group Wagner attacked the master of the Kremlin. Two months later, his plane crashed in an open field north of Moscow. In the meantime, he fled to Belarus, returned home, had an unexpected meeting with Vladimir Putin about Wagner, made a surprise appearance at the St. Petersburg economic summit and sent a video message, apparently from Africa.

Barring an improbable new twist, such as the staging of his death, the Prigozhin episode ended in the twilight of the summer season. For the moment, the circumstances of the crash remain unclear,” says The Spectator.

But as soon as the Embraer Legacy carrying him from Moscow to St. Petersburg exploded in mid-air, all eyes turned to the head of the Kremlin. For one apparent reason: at the time of the aborted rebellion by Wagner’s boss on 23 June, Putin himself had said: “All traitors will be punished”.

An explosion probably caused the plane crash in which Wagner’s boss died. This is what the New York Times reports, citing US security officials. Officials told the newspaper that satellites could not detect a missile launch, so there is no other evidence that a ground-to-air weapon brought down the plane. The explosion could have been caused by a bomb or other device placed on the plane. Other options, such as adulterated fuel, are also being examined.

In your storyteller’s opinion – faithful to the sacred principle of Occam’s razor (simplicity equals truth) – the Kremlin’s reaction delay may be because Vladimir Putin was unsure what to do with Prigozhin. Indeed, we must not forget that The Zar had initially assured him that nothing would happen to him if he chose exile in Belarus, and Vladimir Putin is considered to be someone who keeps his word. But the mercenary leader then boasted that he could move around Russia and abroad as he pleased as if nothing had happened, posting a photo of himself at the Russian-African summit in St. Petersburg in July and recording a video suggesting that he was in Africa a few days ago. This behaviour may have convinced the master of the Kremlin to seal the fate of Wagner’s boss once and for all.

Settling the Prigozhin problem was becoming increasingly urgent as Ukraine’s military situation was not improving for Russia. The Kremlin and the Ministry of Defence could no longer tolerate a free Prigozhin when he represented an option to the army’s strategy on the frontline capable of concurring with the Kremlin bureaucrats.

It would allow the authorities to assert their power and indicate that no variations will be tolerated from now on. But above all, it is an admission of weakness on the part of the Kremlin. Indeed, Vladimir Putin has built his entire political persona around the idea that he has brought order back to Russia. The least we can say is that the internal situation has become very chaotic and that the authorities can no longer deal with problems discreetly.

With the probable demise of Prigozhin and his comrade Dimitri Utkin, the future of the Wagner Group is more in doubt than ever. Since the beginning, Wagner has outlived its usefulness as a political and military tool for Vladimir Putin and will likely be consigned to oblivion. But the model – mercenary groups in Moscow’s paybook – is still growing.

Obituary

Instead of flowers or condolences, Prigozhin’s family (if they exist) requests that interested parties send encrypted messages or anonymous tips to an address that may or may not lead to a deaddrop in an undisclosed location.

While his life may have been a masterclass in misdirection, Prigozhin’s passing reminds us that even the most secretive of strings must eventually be cut. As the curtain falls on this chapter of global intrigue, let us raise an eyebrow in his memory and offer a wry smile for a well-played show.

Glory to Ukraine!