In today’s edition, we will look at two countries fast approaching general elections, whose outcome can potentially turn the table in the EU’s plans.

So close, no matter how far

On 30 September, parliamentary elections will be held in Slovakia, but what will be decided at the polls, especially how the result will be achieved, requires the entire international community’s attention. On the one hand, a victory for Robert Fico, the former populist Prime Minister with pro-Russian views and currently leading the polls, could play a significant role in what happens in neighbouring Ukraine, which receives military aid from Slovakia. On the other hand, substantial propaganda supporting Moscow is filling Facebook and TikTok, which have been called to order.

These will be the first elections in which the Digital Services Act, the European Union regulation that came into force on 25 August and requires online platforms to be vigilant and counter disinformation via social media, will be applied.

The risk of social propaganda in Slovakia is more than just an easy application of the precautionary principle. In March, the Russian embassy’s own Facebook profile was described as ‘a conspiracy theorist’s paradise’; in addition, some 253 possible media outlets were counted that spread disinformation and were strongly pro-Kremlin and at least 1,800 Facebook pages and groups dedicated to pro-Russian propaganda.

Fico has repeatedly attacked Slovakia’s President Zuzana Caputova on social media, accusing her and interim Prime Minister Odor of organising a ‘police coup’ against the opposition and (as protocol dictates) of being manoeuvred by George Soros and the United States. In June, Caputova announced that she would not run for re-election due to death threats received from pro-Russians.

Robert Fico was Prime Minister of Slovakia for two terms, from 2006 to 2010 and from 2012 to 2018. His second term ended on the back of protests over the death of journalist Jan Kuciak, who was killed along with his fiancée Martina Kusnirova while investigating tax fraud involving members of Slovakia’s leadership and possible links to the local mafia.

Slovakia’s current government is headed, on an interim basis, by Ludovit Odor, after the fall of the centre-right, Ukraine-supporting government of Eduard Heger in December.

Fico, for his part, is getting closer and closer to the Kremlin, and intends to discontinue the country’s military support to Ukraine. A decision that seems to meet with the support of a large part of Slovaks: according to a national think tank, Globsec, in 2023 only 40 per cent think that the conflict in Ukraine is Russia’s fault, down from 51 per cent last year. Trust in institutions is very low (around 18 per cent), and only 37 per cent trust the media.

According to the latest polls, Fico’s party leads at 22 per cent, up from 15 per cent a year ago.

Good luck with that, fellas.

On a different note, what better way to digest the Slovakian elections than in neighbouring Poland?

On 15 October, the EU will not leave one of its easiest days.

PiS ruling party has launched a vitriolic campaign against… everyone in the neighbourhood.

Alongside Slovakia and Hungary, Poland first introduced unilateral restrictions on Ukrainian agricultural imports after EU-wide measures expired on 15 September. The step prompted Kyiv to file a lawsuit against the three countries at the World Trade Association (WTO). At the same time, the tensions around grain exports have significantly soured bilateral relations between Ukraine and Poland.

Not sufficiently satisfied with this, Mateusz Morawiecki’s government decided to test Olaf Scholz’s nerves on a dispute over migrants: Berlin is accusing Warsaw of fueling a new wave of illegal migrants entering the country, linking the phenomenon to an alleged visas-for-bribes scandal that has rocked Poland’s government just weeks ahead of the national election. The result: German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser announced yesterday temporary checks on the country’s borders with Poland and the Czech Republic.

Tensions between Germany and Poland had already risen amid a Polish election campaign in which Poland’s ruling PiS party has often targeted Germany by demanding that the German government pay World War II reparations (a good-old argument to quarrel with Berlin under elections).

To conclude on a high note, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced new vehicle searches at Poland’s border with Slovakia on Monday – guess why? – “where there is suspicion that there are illegal immigrants”.

Conclusion: the EU’s halls of power will need to brace themselves for a cold winter.

But you know… as the old saying goes, we are all better off at Christmas.