The far-right FPÖ party came out first in the Austrian legislative elections yesterday, putting after nearly 25 years the centre-right ÖVP party in front of the government dilemma of whether to return to a coalition with the Eurosceptic political force.
According to the final results, the FPÖ obtained 29.2 per cent, a historic success for its leader, Herbert Kickl, who aspires to become the new chancellor after confirming the polls of the eve.
The centre-right and EPP-affiliated ÖVP party, led by Chancellor Karl Nehammer, came in second with 26.5 per cent, eleven points less than four years ago, while the Social Democrats of the SPÖ stopped at 21 per cent. With 9 per cent, the liberals of NEOS overtook the Greens, who fell to 8 per cent, losing almost six percentage points.
With 183 seats in the Nationalrat, 92 are needed to form a majority. In theory, the centre-right MPs of the ÖVP could form a Grosse Koalition with the Social Democrats of the SPO. Nehammer has ruled out supporting Kickl as chancellor but, in theory, could accept a deal with the far right to keep his job. ÖVP Secretary General Christian Stocker reiterated yesterday that there will be no coalition with the FPÖ.
Following the publication of the first election results yesterday, Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen set the stakes for the next government. “I will ensure that the fundamental pillars of our liberal democracy are respected when forming a government: the rule of law, the separation of powers, human and minority rights, independent media and EU membership,” Van der Bellen explained.
Sunday’s election looks like a deja vu for Austria: nearly 25 years ago, the FPÖ, guided by the late Jörg Haider, came second in a national election, forcing the ÖVP to strike a government deal with the far-right. Brussels was shocked at that time by poll results: ministers imposed diplomatic sanctions against Vienna, including suspending high-level meetings and openly discussing excluding Austria from the European Union.
Today, the scenario is slightly different for two main reasons. First, the ÖVP has the numbers to form a coalition with the Social Democrats of the SPO. This would result in a cordon sanitaire against the FPÖ, but … we are pretty used to that.
Secondly, in case the ÖVP decides to form a government with the far-right to keep Nehammer in power, it is doubtful that Brussels would react shocked this time: in the 24 years since Haider’s FPÖ joined Austria’s government, the EU has not taken such drastic steps to isolate and penalise a member state as it did with Austria in 2000, despite Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s problematic stances on EU rule-of-law principles and his accommodating positions with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.
This may be because the block is simply getting used to seeing Eurosceptic parties grabbing slices of power or at least being able to influence national politics radically: it is the case of The Netherlands with Geert Wilders, of France, where the new government led by Michel Barnier is the hostage of Marine Le Pen’s political veto’s, of Slovakia and, with some necessary distinctions, the conservative government of Giorgia Meloni in Italy.
Regardless of the new government, Austria must quickly face critical economic challenges. As we discussed in our latest edition, the country needs to detach from Russian gas imports to meet the EU’s goal to eliminate Russian gas dependency by 2027 in the position of being the most dependent on it. Additionally, radical reforms are needed to address over-the-average inflation and a stuck economy. This will force the next government to take up its responsibilities and make unpopular decisions in a timely fashion manner.
As always, the reality check is the ultimate test bench for every politician.
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