In today’s edition, we give you our perspective on the most uncertain European Council of the year. Enjoy!

What to expect (and what not) from the last European Council of the year

Has the European Union reached the limit of its (once) unconditional support for Ukraine?

The heads of state and government are expected to respond at the European Council on Thursday and Friday. Looming over the summit is a triple veto by the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, who has demanded that the decision to grant Ukraine candidate status, to provide a €50 billion financial aid package to Kyiv, and to finance arms supplies be taken off the meeting’s agenda.

Nothing and no one seems to be able to convince Orbán. After the promise to release 10 billion in funds for Hungary, neither has the Commission, which Brussels froze over corruption and rule-of-law concerns. Nor the tête-à-tête dinners organised by the French president, Emmanuel Macron, at the Elysée Palace or a conversation with the Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez.

On Ukraine, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, intends to test how far Orbán is prepared to go. Michel wants to act as if Orbán had not sent two letters announcing the summit’s failure. The draft conclusions of the European Council confirm ‘unwavering support’ and ‘for as long as necessary’ through financial, military, humanitarian and political aid. A 5 billion ‘Assistance Fund for Ukraine’ will likely be set up by March 2024 to finance arms, although there is no agreement on the exact amount. Regarding the enlargement chapter, the European Council is supposed to give its green light to open accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova.

It could be that the chapter on Ukraine accession negotiations will be the only (Pyrrhic) victory for the Council and its President, as it is likely that Michel will try to convince Orbán with a classic ‘Brussels compromise’: to decide politically today but postpone the confirmation of the decision to March or April. How is it possible? There are several stages in the EU enlargement process: the green light for negotiations, the negotiating framework, the first intergovernmental conference, and the opening of the various chapters on legislation alignment. These instruments can be deployed to convince Orbán that there are enough ‘safeguards’.

However, this time, the level of incertitude is exceptionally high: European leaders willing to show responsibility must face profound uncertainty about future US funding at a time when the country is experiencing growing difficulties on the battlefield.

All but one. If there is a failure due to Orbán’s veto, the other twenty-six leaders will need a collective decision on what to do with this.

This means a Europe of twenty-six, where the European Union would be called upon to play an increasingly marginal role. Support for Ukraine would shift from the EU level to become national and intergovernmental—basically, a sum of national wills.

The centre of gravity of support for Ukraine from Brussels to the national capitals. The signals are multiplying. On the 50 billion aid package, Plan B uses guarantees from 26 national budgets instead of the EU budget. On military supplies, Germany is becoming convinced that the EU Peace Facility is no longer the appropriate instrument due to Orbán’s constant vetoes and the financial burden for Berlin.

The words spoken over the weekend by the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, confirm this. “This war will probably not end as quickly as we would have liked. That is why we must be able to continue doing what we are doing today, next year, and the year after. If others falter, we must increase our part,” Scholz told a Social Democratic Party congress on Saturday. With these words, the German leader seemed to say that his country would go ahead without the US and Orbán. It remains to be seen how many and how in the EU are ready to follow.

All the hypotheses to circumvent Hungary’s veto revolve around one principle: less EU and more national capital to support Ukraine.

A step back to mark a step forward.