As Europe dives into four days of European Parliament (EP) elections, the outcome of the vote has never been so critical for shaping and influencing the EU’s policy trajectory over the next five years. With additional seats at stake, there are mounting concerns about which parties will form a majority and whether the centrist grand coalitions that have historically led Parliament will maintain power.

This year’s campaign has been monopolised by the rising of populist parties across nearly all member states, signalling a potentially disruptive change in European politics.

Beyond seat projections, various factors gauge the electorate’s sentiments. By dissecting public opinion and political trends, we gain a clearer picture of the forces shaping the EU’s future.

Examining the demographics driving participation in the EP elections and the motivations behind it reveals a complex picture. Since the EP elections began in 1979, turnout has steadily declined, hitting an all-time low of 41.61 per cent in 2014 before recovering to 50.55 per cent in 2019. Eurobarometer surveys suggest turnout may increase again this year.

Despite the EU’s expansion projects and increased eligible voters, these elections have struggled to capture European enthusiasm. Unlike national elections, which captivate the electorate’s attention, EP elections are often seen as a secondary mid-term contest and an opportunity to cast a protest vote against national governments.

The trend of declining turnout is clear across almost all European countries, with a few exceptions, such as the 2019 cycle, which saw historic highs.

A recent analysis revealed that individuals with greater financial stability or a strong interest in politics are likelier to vote. The analysis also showed that 30% of 2019 non-voters abstained because they generally do not participate in elections, highlighting a significant segment of disenchanted voters susceptible to populist narratives promising radical change.

Young voters

The 2019 EP election participation surge above 50 per cent was driven largely by increased youth involvement. This trend is expected to continue, fuelled by growing interest in European politics among young people. Two main factors drive this interest: the EU’s efforts to enhance its online presence to attract young users and a general disillusionment with local political establishments failing to address youth issues.

However, this surge in youth engagement also includes a segment vulnerable to extremist narratives. Rising living costs, housing challenges, precarious jobs, and general disillusionment with current realities contribute to a growing sense of angst among the youth.

Post-pandemic and wartime social tensions have propelled populist parties in national polls across most EU member states. A January study by the European Council on Foreign Relations showed a surge in nationalist sentiment and anti-establishment fervour across the Union. These parties, positioning themselves as staunch EU critical voice, are set to become significant internal disruptors. The study suggests young men are more inclined than women to support extremist parties, partly due to feelings of isolation and the contemporary feminist movement empowering women to seek alternatives to traditional power dynamics.

Many nationalist parties, such as the Netherlands’ PVV, France’s National Rally, Portugal’s Chega, and Germany’s AfD, have successfully tapped into these sentiments.

The middle class

In Europe, the middle class includes many professions, from teachers and engineers to mid-level managers and healthcare professionals. Their economic position provides a degree of financial security, yet they remain sensitive to economic shifts, such as inflation, job market changes, and adjustments in social welfare policies.

Beyond economic factors, the middle class is characterised by shared values and aspirations, such as a strong emphasis on education, economic stability, and upward social mobility.

European middle class’s political leanings are not uniform. Historically, they have tended to support centre-right parties due to a focus on fiscal responsibility and entrepreneurship. However, some segments are keen to embrace progressive ideals, with growing concerns about climate change, social justice, and inclusivity. This ideological shift presents challenges for political parties, which must navigate a diverse landscape to appeal to different middle-class groups.

The middle class is a crucial and influential demographic in shaping national and European policies due to its ideological variability. They are seen as key indicators of economic health and social trends, making their collective behaviours and opinions particularly relevant to policymakers.

Economic concerns are central to the middle class’s voting decisions. In an era of economic uncertainty, issues like job security, wage stagnation, and the affordability of housing and healthcare are paramount.

According to a recent study by the University of Amsterdam, middle-class voters in various countries face a dilemma between sticking with their traditional parties or opting for change. This decision could significantly impact the election results.

Source: European Electorates Explored (I): Who is voting for which group?

In the Netherlands, for example, the middle-class voters who previously supported the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) due to their liking for Mark Rutte now face a decision. With the VVD moving towards the right and the rise of parties like Party for Freedom (PVV) and Forum for Democracy (FvD), these voters might either stick with VVD or shift towards more left-leaning parties like the Labour Party (PvdA) or Democrats 66 (D66).

Regardless of the outcome of the elections, the middle class will reflect their enduring significance in shaping Europe’s future.

Elderly voters

According to the same study, elderly voters in the European elections will likely be influenced by their desire for dignity and peace. This suggests that issues such as social security, healthcare, and global peace could be crucial factors in mobilising this voter group.

In practical terms, “historical” political groups like the EPP and the S&D are likely to benefit most from elderly citizens’ votes. This pattern is consistent with the view that established mainstream parties are more popular among older citizens. S&D mobilises more elderly voters from the urban working class, while the EPP holds on to elderly people with a stronger religious background and middle-class lifestyle level.

Conclusion

As Europe embarks on four days of European Parliament elections, the stakes have never been higher for shaping the EU’s policy trajectory over the next five years. The rising influence of populist parties signals a potential shift in European politics, raising concerns about the future composition of the Parliament and the endurance of centrist coalitions.

Examining voter demographics and motivations reveals a complex and evolving landscape.

Citizens from 27 EU countries will vote to shape the bloc’s policies on crucial issues such as climate and energy, defence and security, migration, and more. The composition of the European Parliament will influence the direction of EU institutions and determine the implementation of various programs and policies.

During the current parliamentary term, the EU has made significant strides in integration with initiatives like NextGenerationEU, joint vaccine purchases, and a platform for collective gas procurement. Future integration efforts may focus on areas requiring greater scale, prioritising security and defence alongside economic initiatives.

However, challenges abound. A more fragmented European Parliament and a potential shift towards the right may not halt the integration process as in the past. Still, they could require more political efforts to strike the necessary balance needed to tackle current and future challenges.

John Maynard Keynes is often attributed with the quote, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?” Reality is infamously unyielding, and as Keynes suggested, adapting our views in response to new circumstances is wise. Regardless of the outcome of these elections, success will be measured by the answer to this simple question.