Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: Europe & The Eastern Flank
The Russia-Ukraine War: Strategic Drift and Diplomatic Pressure By 2026, the war in Ukraine is expected to have evolved from a decisive military maneuver toward a prolonged phase of attrition or coerced settlement. We anticipate stalemate persisting throughout the year, with periodic Russian offensives in the Donbas but no decisive breakthrough. However, the primary risk in 2026 is not military collapse, but diplomatic imposition. […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Balkans
Western Balkans: The Stability Trap The Western Balkans remain a persistent flashpoint. In 2026, the region is projected to see slow growth (3.2-3.4%), tempered by geopolitical risks. Serbia-Kosovo Tensions: Relations between Belgrade and Pristina are expected to flare up, potentially triggered by disputed municipal elections or the implementation of the Association of Serb Municipalities. An EU-led mediation effort will […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Americas
US Retrenchment and the “Dormant NATO” The return of an “America First” foreign policy doctrine in the US creates a high probability that Washington will withdraw or significantly degrade its presence on NATO’s eastern flank in 2026. Scenario: Partial Withdrawal B&K Agency’s assessments suggest a scenario where the US reduces its footprint to naval and […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: East Asia
The Taiwan “Limited Blockade” Scenario & The 2026 War Scenario The 2026 War Scenario: Strategic Context The US Naval War College’s Phase III scenario, published in 2023, outlines a plausible if dangerous pathway to conflict in 2026. The scenario posits that following the January 2024 Taiwan presidential election, politics in Taiwan trend further toward independence. […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The South & Southeast Asia
Diversification: EU-India and ASEAN To mitigate the China risk, 2026 will be a pivotal year for the EU’s diversification strategy. However, this will be complicated by India’s own geopolitical positioning and evolving relationship with Russia. India-Russia Strengthening Ties: The December 2025 Summit A critical development reshaping the Indo-Pacific strategic landscape is the strengthening of India-Russia […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Middle East & North Africa
Middle East: The Iran Nuclear Sunset and Geopolitical Fragmentation The year 2026 marks a critical “sunset” phase for the JCPOA and UN Resolution 2231. Key international restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program (enrichment levels, centrifuge R&D) are set to expire in late 2025 and 2026. Proliferation Crisis: This regulatory vacuum leaves the EU with limited diplomatic […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: Sub-Saharan Africa
The Sahel & Critical Minerals Sahel Instability: The “Alliance of Sahel States” (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso) has consolidated power, pivoting towards Russia for security. In 2026, continued instability or a new coup in the region could lead to a surge of migrants across the Central Mediterranean, testing the EU’s newly implemented “New Pact on Migration”. Critical Minerals Partnerships: […]
2026: A Year of Europe’s Political and Economic Recalibration
As 2025 comes to a close, we look ahead to 2026 and explore the decisions set to define Europe’s political and economic path. Enjoy! From Regulation to Fragmentation The year drawing to a close has been a particularly complex one for the European Union, and especially for the Commission’s legislative and political agenda. After five […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Era of Forced Adaptation
The year 2026 will not be remembered for a single shock, but for the moment when accumulated pressures finally force strategic decisions that Europe has deferred for more than a decade. The post-Cold War assumption that prosperity, security, and stability could be outsourced has expired. What replaces it is a far harsher operating environment in […]
Behind the India-Russia Summit: Implications for Europe
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited New Delhi from 4–5 December 2025 for the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit. The summit took place under intense geopolitical pressure, characterised by the Trump administration’s imposition of 50% tariffs on Indian imports and specific penalties on energy trade intended to curb New Delhi’s engagement with Russia. The summit served as […]