In today’s edition, we analyse the outcome of the Dutch election and its implications for the country and the EU.
Enjoy!
Wilders goes wild: What the Dutch election means for the country and the EU
A resounding success and beyond expectations for the PVV, Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party. The far-right leader, who has been living under police protection for years, is set to win the Dutch elections, according to the latest polls, which awards him as many as 37 seats out of the 150 in the Lower Chamber. Behind the PVV, the Labour-Green ticket led by former EU climate commissioner Frans Timmermans, to whom the centre-left entrusted the hopes of returning to government, secures 25 deputies. Worse than the expectations and polls of the eve, the VVD, the liberal-conservative Party of the outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte and now led by his Minister of Justice Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, would get 24 seats. Almost twenty seats would go to the SC, the New Social Contract, a new-born centrist movement founded by the long-time deputy Pieter Omtzigt, which until a few days ago was considered headed for victory. Other parties are distant: 10 seats for the progressive liberals of D66, 7 for the BBB Farmers Movement, triumphant in the regional elections in March, and 5 for the Christian-democrats and the left. The success of the PVV – which has more than doubled the votes compared to the previous elections of 2021 – is a seismic wave that risks spreading to Europe, considering projections for neighbouring countries like Belgium given next year’s election round. Wilders has been the protagonist of Dutch political life for over 15 years. He had often been listed among the favourites before the elections; however, he had never confirmed his predictions, thus remaining confined to the opposition, except for the first Rutte government (2010), to which he provided external support.
The centrality in the Dutch debate on the immigration topic undoubtedly explains Wilder’s success. In 2022, the Netherlands faced unprecedented migration flows due to the arrival of Ukrainian refugees and experienced considerable logistic difficulties to cope with the reception. In this scenario, PVV has made immigration the scapegoat of internal economic problems particularly felt by the population, starting with social housing. Wilders finally took advantage of brilliant performances in TV debates in recent days, convincing a good chunk of the large percentage of undecided polls recorded until the eve. ‘We will return Holland to the Dutch – were Wilders’ first words – Stop the migration tsunami.’
However, election victory does not mean that Wilders will be Prime Minister. Numbers, although important, make a coalition necessary, and among the other three major parties, the only one not to initially exclude a government with him was Rutte’s VVD. However, recently, current leader Dilan Yeşilgöz, perhaps worried about having paved the way for him, has turned around.
The composition of the new coalition holds significant potential to influence the immigration and climate policies of the Netherlands, as well as its relationships with European partners. Following the resignation of Rutte’s fourth and final coalition in July, disagreements on measures to address migration, a pivotal campaign issue, led to its downfall. The campaign also highlighted concerns such as a housing crisis impacting Dutch youth, the cost of living, and eroding voter trust in politicians.
Wilders, a prominent Eurosceptic, has persistently advocated for the Dutch government to regain control over its borders, aiming to reduce immigration, cut payments to the EU’s budget, and veto its expansion. Additionally, he has called for an end to the Netherlands’ arms shipments to Ukraine. Wilders has recently moderated his staunch anti-Islam stance in a shift, seemingly intending to participate in a coalition government for the first time. He acknowledges that there are “bigger problems” than solely reducing refugee numbers and expresses a willingness to set aside some of his anti-Muslim positions temporarily.
Will the well-known cordon sanitaire be created to keep the far-right out? Or will the realpolitik prevail, the one that in 2015 led Wilders himself to claim, in an interview with an Italian newspaper, that ‘politicians would sell their mother to govern?’
The problematic and supposedly protracted negotiations that will now begin will dispel the doubts.
