In today’s special edition, we are looking at the death of former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and its consequences for the future of the Italian politics

The end of an era

Today marks a significant moment for Italy and the entirety of Europe as we bid farewell to an era with the passing of Silvio Berlusconi at the age of 86. Contemplating an Italy without Berlusconi proved to be a challenging task. From his beginnings as a construction entrepreneur and television magnate to his roles as president of A.C. Milan and F.C. Monza, founder of the Forza Italia party and Il Popolo delle Libertà, and three-time prime minister, Berlusconi’s name was an ever-present fixture in the nation’s discourse. Over the last fifty years, it was challenging to go a day without hearing or reading about him, be it on a TV program, in a café, within the halls of parliament, or even at the local supermarket — he perpetually captured public attention.

Berlusconi was the architect of a new right-wing movement and a new brand of politics characterized by liberal aspirations and populist tendencies, which still are part of our daily political life. The passing of Silvio Berlusconi marks the end of a distinctive era—a time defined by his influence and impact on Italian society and politics. Regardless of personal opinions on his legacy, it is undeniable fact that his tenure transformed the political landscape and left an indelible imprint on the nation.

What’s next for Italian politics?

Moving forward, many articles will delve into his history, but the focus should now turn to the future of Italian politics. Forza Italia, his party, has been losing votes and power day by day, but it remains one of the three parties in the coalition government. Speculation abounds regarding what could happen to Forza Italia and Meloni’s government.

In reality, three scenarios emerge, each involving various political players.

First scenario: Forza Italia collapse and the creation of a new centrist party

The first scenario involves the collapse of Forza Italia. Former Prime Minister Renzi, with his Renew Europe affiliated party, Italia Viva, has already expressed openness to those leaving Forza Italia to join his movement. Many MPs, local leaders, and MEPs are rumored to be in talks with Fratelli d’Italia to join the leading party, and Gianfranco Miccichè, the former president of Sicily and a long-standing member of Berlusconi’s party, has already declared that “together with Berlusconi, Forza Italia is also dead.”

Over the past decade, those who voted for Berlusconi either abstained from voting or supported parties that disappeared shortly after. The dissolution of Forza Italia could open the door to creating a new EPP-centered right-wing party capable of winning the support of the Italian middle class. Political leaders, including Matteo Renzi, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, and even Forza Italia MP Marta Fascina, could spearhead this new party, and according to the latest polls, such a movement could secure nearly 20% of the vote from those who abstained in the last election.

The interest to create such a party exists, but the question remains whether national interest will overcome the personal egos of the political players involved.

Second scenario: Forza Italia is kept alive

It is also conceivable that Tajani and Fascina, the leading players within Forza Italia, will strive to keep their party alive. Forza Italia is currently polling at 5%, and it is possible that, at least until the European Elections next year or even later to the Italian election in five years, the party will be maintained in a state of convalescence, merely postponing its demise. And because of this, it is possible that Forza Italia will disappear later, and nothing will arise from its ashes.

Third scenario: the late collapse of Forza Italia and the polarization of Italian politics

This is the most challenging scenario to imagine. In many ways, Forza Italia has always occupied the center of the political spectrum. Envisioning Italian politics without a center would lead to a polarized political arena where the right wing (formed by the ID-affiliated Lega and the ECR’s Fratelli d’Italia) would face opposition from the left-wing Partito Democratico (S&D and The Left) and the Movimento 5 Stelle (unaffiliated), leading to a fracture of the Italian society like we didn’t see it before.

The strategies to be employed by Tajani, Fascina, Renzi, and others in this game still need to be determined. But there is little time to decide; European Elections are just one year away.

Today we mourn, but tomorrow brings a new beginning. And not just for Italy but for the entire Europe Union.