Commission’s nominees

First and foremost, let’s look at the new European Commission. Before the summer pause, the freshly re-elected President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, asked the 27 Member States to deliver two nominees, one man and one woman, as their candidates for the role of Commissioner. To date, 22 nominees have been put forward. The five countries that failed to respond (Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Italy and Portugal) have until this Friday to pick up their names. However, President von der Leyen is set to miss the gender-balance target for these top jobs after EU governments snubbed her request to propose male and female candidates. In the worst-case scenario, the next Commission – expected to take office in December – could have only 22% or 26% women (including von der Leyen herself), a worse gender balance than the previous one when it took office in 2019 with 44% female representation.

But… what’s next?

Once the list of nominees is officialised, the candidates for Commission portfolios must undergo an arduous parliamentary vetting process.

These nominees face parliamentary committee hearings about their intended areas of responsibility. Committees assess each candidate’s expertise and report to the Parliament President. Poor evaluations may lead candidates to drop out, as has occurred before. In a single consent vote, the Parliament then votes on the entire Commission package, including its President and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

The European Council officially appoints the Commissioners by qualified majority upon Parliament’s approval. If significant portfolio changes occur mid-term, a position becomes vacant, or a new Commissioner joins due to a country’s accession, the affected Commissioner must undergo another relevant committee hearing.

If von der Leyen decides not to reshuffle the current list of candidates (yes, she can ask Member States to propose new names before submitting them to Parliament for scrutiny), it is expected that the hearings of the commissioners-designate will take place in the European Parliament at the end of September. It will be up to the European Parliament to take gender parity into account when hearing, approving and rejecting Commissioners-designate as stipulated in the Parliament’s Rules of Procedure.

The appointment of former Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa as Michel’s successor as president of the European Council should be slightly less tricky. EU leaders elect the president of the European Council, and Parliament has no say. His name already has a provisional agreement as he is meant to take office on 1 December.

The open files

Brussels’s institutional life won’t stop waiting for the new top job nominees. The Hungarian Presidency of the Council has several policy files to deal with and push to the Parliament’s scrutiny.

Among others, the Farm to Fork strategy must be completed, especially on rules for genetically modified crops and animal welfare during transport. Poland has been a vocal opponent of gene-editing proposals due to concerns about patenting, while other Member States disagree on the limits for animal transport. There is also the big topic of the next Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), whose main challenge will be to combine economic competitiveness with environmental goals.

Hungary aims to make progress with the European Defence Industry Programme, which has a budget of €1.5 billion for 2025-2027 to bolster joint procurement and defence capabilities. Debates over the adequacy of funding and which companies should be eligible exist, with some EU members advocating for excluding firms that manufacture under U.S. licenses.

Hungary’s role will be pivotal regarding sanctions and the use of Russian assets. Its historically softer stance with the Kremlin could influence discussions on using the proceeds from frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine and the enforcement of sanctions against Russia, although the EU proceeded with a first transfer of €1.5 billion in July. The Hungarian position may lead to delays or complications in maintaining a unified EU approach on the matter.

What can we expect from the “global EU” in the next four months?

Two significant issues are crucial for the bloc to address after the summer break.

1. War is always there

The first, predictably, is how to maintain EU unity while continuing to support Ukraine. Since the beginning of the war, the EU has somehow managed to square the circle on its support to Kyiv. However, recent controversial diplomatic moves by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has visited Moscow and Beijing, could be seen as the anticipation of a more open debate on how to shape future support to Ukraine, given that the “diplomatic engines” of Germany and France are operating at low revs due to internal leadership instability. Still, most European leaders see Orbán’s suggestion to collaborate with a Republican presidency to end the war as a move that would leave Ukraine vulnerable and expose Europe to future Russian ambitions. The challenge after the summer will be for EU member states and EU institutions to ensure that Europe maintains influence on the global stage and guides the material and diplomatic support of Kyiv.

2. The (American) elephant in the room

The second pressing issue is how to prepare for a potential Republican presidency after November’s election. With Trump’s return to the White House, European leaders would need to reconsider how to safeguard their transatlantic relations with a much probable shift toward US isolationism. This could lead to reduced US support for Ukraine, pressure for Kyiv to enter peace negotiations with Russia, and a strategic pivot towards Asia (read, Taiwan), leaving Europe to manage its own security. After four years of relatively calm EU-US relations under President Joe Biden, some European leaders may have grown accustomed to a cooperative tone from Washington, even when it comes to solving trade disputes. Europe will need to be prepared to defend its interests more assertively, as signs of this shift have already been seen at recent NATO and European Political Community summits, where Europe has ramped up its defence efforts, and the EU and UK have begun resetting their relationship.

In this scenario, we have reasons to think that many in the Brussels bubble may have preferred a calmer comeback, but “in this twittering world”, everything on this globe is always in motion.