The Militarisation of the Arctic and Institutional Paralysis 

The Arctic, once a zone of “high north, low tension,” will face a grim reality in 2026. The region is increasingly characterised by militarisation and the breakdown of governance mechanisms. 

The Death of the Arctic Council: 

Following the suspension of meaningful cooperation with Russia – which controls over 50% of the Arctic coastline – the Arctic Council risks irrelevance. Denmark, holding the chairship for the 2025-2027 term, will attempt to keep the institution alive by focusing on “low-politics” issues like indigenous rights and climate monitoring. However, the security and environmental cooperation tracks are effectively dead. 

Russian Posture and EU Vulnerability: 

Russia is expected to further consolidate its military infrastructure in the High North, viewing the region as a strategic bastion for its nuclear deterrent. The “nationalsation” of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and increased restrictions on foreign vessels will heighten the risk of maritime confrontation. 

• Environmental Threat: A major concern for the EU in 2026 is the “shadow fleet” of aging tankers transporting Russian crude through icy Arctic waters. With the breakdown of cooperation, there is no joint mechanism for responding to an oil spill, leaving Scandinavian coastlines vulnerable to an unmanaged ecological disaster. 

• Resource Denial: The geopolitical freeze hampers the EU’s ability to access potential Arctic critical minerals, complicating the diversification strategy away from Chinese supply chains. 

Impact on Europe

The loss of Arctic cooperation mechanisms represents both an environmental and strategic vulnerability for Nordic EU members. The region’s militarisation and the inability to manage transnational environmental risks underscore Europe’s weakened institutional capacity in the Arctic. 

Read the full B&K Agency Global Outlook for 2026: