On Wednesday, the French government fell over negotiations on the new budget law, setting the stage for another political crisis in Europe, just a few weeks after the German Chancellor Scholz called for early elections. As widely reported in the last few days, the Parliament approved a motion of no confidence against Prime Minister Michel Barnier, who previously served as Special envoy for the Brexit negotiations for the European Union. The motion passed thanks to an alliance between the far-right wing party Rassemblement National (RN) and the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire, both hostile to the 2025 budgetary law: the left-wing alliance worried about the restrictive measures for public services, while the far-right party were concerned about the cut to the security budget.  In an attempt to overcome the opposition in parliament, the prime minister had resorted to Article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows a law to be approved without a vote in the courtroom, except for the presentation of a ‘motion of censure’ within the next 24 hours.

Barnier had been in office for only 91 days: He had assumed office on 5 September 2024, after French President Macron had called for snap elections as the far-right wing part Rassemblement National (RN) had gained a majority of French votes in the European elections. With the snap vote, Macron had hoped to clarify whether this was also a reflection of the political change in the country since the 2022 national elections. The results revealed that he had misjudged the situation, with his party only coming in second (168 seats), after the left-wing alliance New Popular Front (182 seats), and closely followed by the Rassemblement National (143 seats).

Prime Minister Barnier was leading a government with no clear majority – as no party had managed to secure the 289 seats needed – and with no clear political alliances. In the elections last June, the president had stopped Marine Le Pen’s advance thanks to an undeclared but evident alliance with the left. But then he launched a government with the external support of  Marine Le Pen’s party. It couldn’t last, and it didn’t.

A reflection of changing balances in French politics

The Barnier government was certainly not the first minority government. François Mitterrand ruled France for five years, from 1988 to 1993, without an absolute majority in Parliament. However, at the time, the communist party was skeptical about voting on the motions of censure presented by the Gaullist right, and the far-right was not in power. The recent motion for no confidence seems to reflect the changing balances in French politics, indicating whether Macron’s approach to French politics – dubbed ‘Macronism’ – is bound to end. Since his first election in 2017, Macron has aimed to push France’s economy and international standing and champion the EU by transcending the left-right political divide and relying on talent and policy ideas from all sides. His strategy of gradually moderating his stance and moving to the center was successful in two presidential elections. Still, its weakness seems to emerge in the face of the social crisis and the President’s unpopularity. Additionally, in the past years, the far-right seems to have garnered increasing popularity and attention in France against Marcon’s initial bet.

Considering this, what will happen next is still open to discussion. Macron’s increased unpopularity might offer greater chances of victory to Marine Le Pen (Deputy of the Rassemblement National) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (member of the far-left political party La France Insoumise), who have already run for the presidency in 2017 and 2022.

The president still has one last move: to form a government with a larger majority that includes the socialist party, given that the New People’s Front is not a genuine political party but an electoral alliance. While the reformists may be able to break free from Mélenchon’s dominance, are they prepared to relinquish their electoral gains in favour of the country’s stability? Even within the Macronist camp, there has been initial resistance. The candidates for the Elysée, beginning with former Prime Minister Eduard Philippe, are now considering their own interests.

Broader repercussions in Europe

The repercussions of this new political crisis in France are significant for the European Union. Just today, the European Commission and the Mercosur countries finalised a free trade agreement, despite strong opposition from France and the French government. This decision sparked a “war” between member states and the new Commission. With Germany and France, the EU’s two largest, and for at least the past 20 years the most powerful, member states, facing political crises, the coming months will reveal whether the European Commission can continue advancing its agenda or if a new political power will emerge in Europe.

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