The Long Night of the Fifth Republic

Sunday, 7 July, eight o’clock, spelled the end of France’s exceptionalism in the European political landscape. The results of the second round of the legislative elections sanctioned the divorce of the French citizens from the quasi-monarchic presidential system, in which the Parliament (Assemblée Nationale) plays a marginal role compared to the powers concentrated in the hands of the resident in the Élysée Palace.

The first round on 30 June gave us the sense of estrangement of most French citizens from President Emmanuel Macron after seven years in office. Yesterday’s results deprived the National Assembly of an absolute majority, forcing French politics to break away from the patterns that marked the Fifth Republic.

The game of the barrage (dam) played by the centrists and the leftist block paid off: the withdrawal of several candidates in different constituencies to act as a barrier to the National Rally candidates prevented Marine Le Pen’s party (allied to the small fraction of Les Républicains led by Eric Ciotti) from obtaining an absolute majority or even coming close.

The party heir of the Front National of Jean-Marie Le Pen has fallen to third place after coming out victorious in the first round, also overtaken by Macron’s centrist Ensemble coalition. The entire-left coalition of The New Popular Front came unexpectedly into the lead in terms of number of seats. The graphic below shows the distribution of seats in the new National Assembly.

The day after

Internal divisions weighed on what to do after the vote. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of La France Insoumise—the extremist party inside the left coalition—immediately demanded the government implement their entire program (60-year retirement age, gas price freeze, increase of the minimum wage) and ruled out a coalition with the centrists and the Republicans. On the other hand, the socialist MEP Raphaël Glucksmann replied that “dialogue is needed” in the absence of a clear absolute majority. People close to President Macron also excluded an alliance with both the National Rally and Melenchon’s party, implying that consultations to build a coalition can be established with the moderate fractions of the left coalition and The Republicans.

All things considered, France is entering a new political era—at least for the next three years before the 2027 presidential elections. The Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, has resigned this morning. But he added that, given the lack of majority, he will retain his duties “for as long as duty requires.” As in other European countries, rather than immediately handing over the job to a new prime minister, President Macron will likely have to start a round of consultations with party leaders to find a working coalition. It is unlikely that he will be the one to pilot the negotiations, given that he is a party to the matter. France could find itself grappling with the figures of informants, negotiators and officials who fill the post-election landscape of countries like Belgium or the Netherlands. In this scenario, a caretaker government cannot be ruled out.

Uncharted waters

Whether it will be a grand coalition of traditional parties or a caretaker government, France has become a country like many others in the European Union. The president will no longer be able to pass legislation by outweighing the powers of the National Assembly (as was the case with the pensions reform). Parties will also have to learn to negotiate and compromise with each other.

However, in the uncommon regime of French presidentialism, Emmanuel Macron will retain his prerogatives on foreign and defence policy. It is unlikely that the National Assembly will be able to change the direction of the French (military and financial) support to Ukraine. Nevertheless, foreign policy and defence are only a part of the all-embracing agenda of the next legislature for the European Union: among other critical chapters, by 2027, the year of the next presidential elections in France, the twenty-seven will also have to negotiate the next multiannual financial framework, the EU seven-year budget for the period 2027-2033. Furthermore, France is subject to the EU Commission’s procedure for excessive deficit. It will have to carry out important budgetary manoeuvres to comply with the Stability and Growth Pact rules, which have just returned into force.

Until 9 June, Macron had a functioning (minority) government. With his bet on the dissolution of the National Assembly, he brought France into uncharted political waters.