Sweden’s Election: the Moderates Hold, Social Democrats Survive, and the Sweden Democrats Lose Ground
Last weekend’s election in Sweden gave a narrow edge to the centre-left, though the outcome may shift over the coming days. We can examine what occurred and what lies ahead. In every poll before the vote, the centre-right Moderata—linked to the EPP at the EU level and to the prime minister—were expected to lose up […]
The Many Drivers Behind the AfD Vote
This past weekend’s election in Saxony-Anhalt shocked Germany with the victory of Alternative für Deutschland with more than 40% of the votes. In this newsletter, we look into the reasons behind such vote and what it means for Europe at large. Sunday’s AfD’s 43.8% victory in Saxony-Anhalt is not that easy to explain. The simplest […]
South Caucasus in Focus: EU relations, Trade and Resources
As Europe and Asia search for alternative trade routes, the South Caucasus is becoming a strategic geopolitical actor. However, its potential as a connector depends on whether the region can overcome persistent bilateral disputes, divergent geopolitical alignments, and cross-border infrastructure gaps. The South Caucasus sits at the intersection of several major connectivity projects, yet geography […]
Doubling the Electricity Use by 2040: EU’s New Electrification Action Plan
On 17 July 2026, the Commission proposed the Electrification Action Plan. The plan represents a package made to push Europe toward becoming what officials are calling the world’s first “electro-continent”. Primarily, it shows how Brussels wants to move industry and transport away from fossil fuels and towards the electricity grid. Overall, it is an ambitious […]
The $1 Billion Fine: EU’s First Take on US Big Tech Under the Digital Markets Act
On 23 July 2026, the European Commission adopted two decisions imposing a combined fine of €890 million on Google for non-compliance with the Digital Markets Act. The first fine, amounting to €460 million, concerns the preferential treatment of Google’s own services in Google Search. The second, amounting to €430 million, concerns restrictions preventing app developers […]
The Road to the Élysée Palace: Assessing the 2027 French Presidential Election
The France is approaching one of the most important election cycles in the Fifth Republic. Scheduled to take place in April next year, the upcoming presidential election marks the end of the Emmanuel Macron era and a test for the stability of the European single market. With the President Macron constitutionally prohibited from seeking a […]
Strategic Assessment: US Prepares to Strike Iran
Executive Summary The United States and Iran are currently in a high-stakes stand-off that has reached a boiling point this February. Following a massive and bloody crackdown on domestic protesters in Iran last month, President Trump has shifted the US military into a strike-ready posture. While diplomacy remains technically active through indirect talks in Geneva, […]
Strategic Assessment: The False Promise of a China Pivot
Executive Summary The European Union’s emerging re-engagement with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), frequently characterised by policymakers as a pragmatic or transactional recalibration, constitutes a strategic misjudgement with compounding long-term risks. While framed as a stabilising response to transatlantic uncertainty and a means of sustaining Europe’s green and industrial transitions, the empirical record demonstrates […]
China’s Quiet Non-Wins at Davos
Executive Summary At Davos 2026, China avoided overt confrontation and instead deployed a strategy of calculated restraint, positioning itself as a predictable and non-combative interlocuteur amid visible Western tensions. This posture may have created the appearance of quiet advantage, but did not translate into a substantive diplomatic or strategic win. Beijing largely reiterated long-standing talking […]
Berlin and Rome Rewire Europe’s Security Architecture
Executive Summary The signing of the “Agreement on Enhanced Co-operation on Security, Defence, and Resilience” in Rome on 23 January 2026, represents a fundamental shift in European power dynamics. Beyond a standard defence treaty, this document formalises a partnership focused on three high-stakes geopolitical arenas: the African continent, orbital strategic autonomy, and transnational cyber resilience. […]