Elections Specials: Frangar, non flectar

  • Article

In this week’s special supplement, we are offering a take on the results of the Round 1 of the Turkish election. Enjoy the read and stay tuned for more following 28 May!

Frangar, non flectar

The day before the election, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was given up for dead, according to national polls. Ultimately, The Reis failed to carve out a significant lead enough to avoid a runoff contest in two weeks. Boasting a lead of more than 2 million votes, the incumbent president will go to the second round on 28 May against Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the primary opponent chosen by the grouping of opposition parties, who failed to confirm the expectations of the Eve. The results show Erdogan winning 49,8% of the votes, while Kilicdaroglu secured 44,3% support. Short of the 50 per cent needed to avoid a second round, Erdogan seems already on track to maintain its parliamentary majority.

Said like this, it seems that everything went smoothly last night. Sorry to disappoint you, dear reader. Yesterday, not only two presidential candidates clashed, but also two narratives. On the one hand, Anadolu, the government-owned news agency, gave Erdogan 10 points ahead until just before midnight; on the other, Anka, closer to the opposition, described a totally opposite scenario, with Kilicdaroglu just ahead of the Sultan. All of these raised concerns (especially among Erdogan’s contenders) about the pace of the vote count. This should be enough to make it clear how Turkey is, today more than ever, a country split into two very different visions of the future and how to manage power.

In the meantime, markets never sleep and don’t care about your feelings: national markets slumped as soon as financial operators realised the nation was headed for a runoff election, surprising investors – and the poor pollsters – who were betting (maybe literally) for an end of Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s twenty years hegemony and his unconventional economic path.

The lion is wounded, but he is definitely not dead. Rendez-vous to 28 May for the second round.

Share

Sign up for our newsletter

Explore More

  • Article, Brief

South Caucasus in Focus: EU relations, Trade and Resources

As Europe and Asia search for alternative trade routes, the South Caucasus is becoming a strategic geopolitical actor. However, its potential as a connector depends on whether the region can overcome persistent bilateral disputes, divergent geopolitical alignments, and cross-border infrastructure gaps.  The South Caucasus sits at the intersection of

Read more
  • Article

Iceland Sails Alone: No to the Eurointegration

As Iceland’s EU membership bid remains stagnant after the referendum, the voters decided to prioritise its fishing industry and national sovereignty over the security guarantees that the bloc accession would carry. On 29 August, Icelanders were asked a narrow procedural question, whether to reopen EU accession talks that the

Read more
  • Article

Europe’s Energy Problem is Becoming an Industrial Problem

Europe’s energy crisis is becoming a structural competitiveness problem, raising questions about whether the EU can decarbonise without making European industry increasingly uncompetitive. Europe’s energy crisis is increasingly becoming a competitiveness problem, but the debate in Brussels is still largely framed as an energy-policy problem. The original causes of

Read more