Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: East Asia
The Taiwan “Limited Blockade” Scenario & The 2026 War Scenario The 2026 War Scenario: Strategic Context The US Naval War College’s Phase III scenario, published in 2023, outlines a plausible if dangerous pathway to conflict in 2026. The scenario posits that following the January 2024 Taiwan presidential election, politics in Taiwan trend further toward independence. […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The South & Southeast Asia
Diversification: EU-India and ASEAN To mitigate the China risk, 2026 will be a pivotal year for the EU’s diversification strategy. However, this will be complicated by India’s own geopolitical positioning and evolving relationship with Russia. India-Russia Strengthening Ties: The December 2025 Summit A critical development reshaping the Indo-Pacific strategic landscape is the strengthening of India-Russia […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Middle East & North Africa
Middle East: The Iran Nuclear Sunset and Geopolitical Fragmentation The year 2026 marks a critical “sunset” phase for the JCPOA and UN Resolution 2231. Key international restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program (enrichment levels, centrifuge R&D) are set to expire in late 2025 and 2026. Proliferation Crisis: This regulatory vacuum leaves the EU with limited diplomatic […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: Sub-Saharan Africa
The Sahel & Critical Minerals Sahel Instability: The “Alliance of Sahel States” (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso) has consolidated power, pivoting towards Russia for security. In 2026, continued instability or a new coup in the region could lead to a surge of migrants across the Central Mediterranean, testing the EU’s newly implemented “New Pact on Migration”. Critical Minerals Partnerships: […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Arctic
The Militarisation of the Arctic and Institutional Paralysis The Arctic, once a zone of “high north, low tension,” will face a grim reality in 2026. The region is increasingly characterised by militarisation and the breakdown of governance mechanisms. The Death of the Arctic Council: Following the suspension of meaningful cooperation with Russia – which controls over 50% of the Arctic coastline […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: Transatlantic Relations
Transatlantic Trade Wars and the Tariff Shock Beyond security, 2026 is projected to be a year of intense geoeconomic friction. Global economic forecasts indicate that growth in 2025 may have been “front-loaded” as businesses raced to export goods before anticipated US tariff hikes take effect in 2026. This reflects the broader fragmentation of the global […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: Europe & The Eastern Flank
The Russia-Ukraine War: Strategic Drift and Diplomatic Pressure By 2026, the war in Ukraine is expected to have evolved from a decisive military maneuver toward a prolonged phase of attrition or coerced settlement. We anticipate stalemate persisting throughout the year, with periodic Russian offensives in the Donbas but no decisive breakthrough. However, the primary risk in 2026 is not military collapse, but diplomatic imposition. […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Balkans
Western Balkans: The Stability Trap The Western Balkans remain a persistent flashpoint. In 2026, the region is projected to see slow growth (3.2-3.4%), tempered by geopolitical risks. Serbia-Kosovo Tensions: Relations between Belgrade and Pristina are expected to flare up, potentially triggered by disputed municipal elections or the implementation of the Association of Serb Municipalities. An EU-led mediation effort will […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Americas
US Retrenchment and the “Dormant NATO” The return of an “America First” foreign policy doctrine in the US creates a high probability that Washington will withdraw or significantly degrade its presence on NATO’s eastern flank in 2026. Scenario: Partial Withdrawal B&K Agency’s assessments suggest a scenario where the US reduces its footprint to naval and […]
B&K Agency presents analysis of Sudan’s security landscape at the European Parliament
This week, B&K Agency’s Director of Geopolitical Intelligence Heath Sloane shared an overview of Islamic networks in the Sudan civil war at the European Parliament, alongside Sudanese civilian advocate and a former minister in Sudan’s Transitional Government Khalid Omer Yousif. B&K Agency’s analysis uncovered an ecosystem of Islamist networks that supply ideological credibility and digital […]