Friedrich Merz secured his win as Germany’s new chancellor in the second parliamentary vote. However, this was not an easy win. Today, we are looking at the events of the day and what they mean for Germany’s geopolitical leadership.

Friedrich Merz wins the second parliamentary vote

During the second parliamentary vote in the Bundestag, Germany’s conservative leader Friedrich Merz managed to secure his position as the new German chancellor with 325 votes in favour — just nine more than the required majority of 316. It was a narrow win that almost didn’t happen.

In hindsight, it was always a gamble to put forward a candidate with a negative approval rating. So it should not have come as a surprise when Merz failed to secure the chancellorship in the first round. And yet, it did.

There was a celebratory atmosphere in the chamber as the new parliament convened for the first time since the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and Social Democrats (SPD) signed a coalition agreement following the CDU/CSU’s victory in February’s snap elections. However, this day may be remembered less for the formation of the coalition and more for the historic failure of a chancellor candidate to win in the first ballot — a first in modern German history.

A second vote, which under the German constitution can be held within 15 days of the first, was hastily convened just hours later at the CDU’s insistence — a bold move meant to project party strength. But it raised uncomfortable questions: Why did Merz fail to secure the required 316 votes in the first round, despite the coalition’s theoretical majority of 328 out of 630 Bundestag seats? Ultimately, he fell just three votes short.

Merz has long been a polarising figure. A poll last week showed that 56% of Germans believed he would be an unsuccessful chancellor. His unpopularity even within his own bloc has raised concerns about internal unity in the conservative ranks.

Though Merz now occupies the chancellor’s office, the government has clearly stumbled at the starting line. Germany’s ambitions to reassert itself as “the European economic locomotive” are on hold. The coalition now faces a pressing challenge: can it push through sweeping reforms — from immigration policy to tax cuts and defence spending increases — or will fear of further political failure paralyse its agenda?

In contrast, the far-right Alternative for Germany — which placed second in February’s snap election and is leading in some current polls — appears to be the main beneficiary of Merz’s rocky start. AfD co-leader Alice Weidel quickly called for Merz to resign after the failed first vote and urged new elections, openly positioning the AfD as a future coalition partner. While such a scenario remains unlikely for now, Weidel’s challenge cannot be easily dismissed in the wake of today’s events.

As Germany faces one of its deepest political crises in decades, another European member state delivered its own surprise: Romania.

On Sunday, after the first round of presidential elections was annulled by the Supreme Court, a new vote was held. George Simion, leader of the nationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (ARU) and a member of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) in the European Parliament, won the first round with 40%. He will now face Bucharest’s liberal mayor, Nicușor Dan, in the runoff.

Simion’s rise is the real shock of this election. Straddling nationalism and conservatism, he presents himself as an anti-establishment figure. In a BBC interview, he called for a referendum to restore Romania’s historical borders — including parts of present-day Hungary and Moldova — and warned that “Russia is the biggest danger to Romania, Poland, and the Baltic states.”

Simion’s success has already claimed a political casualty: Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu has resigned, and his Social Democratic Party is leaving the government, plunging the country into yet another political crisis. Hardly a reassuring signal to voters who expect a firm response to rising populist rhetoric.

While Germany is leaking from self-inflicted wounds, Romania is seeking its sixth prime minister in three years. France is on its eighth in seven years. Spain’s governing majority hangs by just four votes in the lower chamber.

Amid the chaos, a new axis appears to be emerging in Europe — one built by countries once seen as unstable and unreliable: Greece and Italy. The question is whether this new bloc can provide enough stability and leadership to keep Europe united in a time of geopolitical turmoil.