The Middle East and the EU’s Seat at the Table

The conflict in the Middle East escalates after the US and Israel take decisive action in Iran for a regime change, while the EU is sidelined in crisis response as Cyprus is attacked. The Middle East and the EU’s Seat at the Table ​If the geopolitical world had a tipping point, it was likely crossed […]

Strategic Assessment: US Prepares to Strike Iran

Executive Summary The United States and Iran are currently in a high-stakes stand-off that has reached a boiling point this February. Following a massive and bloody crackdown on domestic protesters in Iran last month, President Trump has shifted the US military into a strike-ready posture. While diplomacy remains technically active through indirect talks in Geneva, […]

Help Is (Not) on the Way: Four Years of Roadblocks

On the fourth anniversary of Moscow launching a full-scale war against Ukraine, the EU is once again stuck trying to send financial aid to Kyiv and restrict business with Russia.  Help Is (Not) on the Way: Four Years of Roadblocks Today, on 24 February 2026, marks precisely four years since the world was stricken by the news that Russian tanks […]

The Munich Stress-Test: The New World Is Emerging

Yet another Munich Security Conference is behind us, and these were the key events that took place over the course of last weekend. The Munich Stress-Test: The New World Is Emerging The halls of the Hotel Bayerischer Hof are usually filled with the polite hum of strategic patience. This year, at the 2026 Munich Security […]

Portugal Chooses a Left-Leaning President – What’s Next?

After three weeks of uncertainty between rounds one and two of Portuguese presidential elections, a moderate candidate scored a win against his right-wing opponent, but what does that mean for the country and the Continent? Portugal Chooses a Left-Leaning President – What’s Next? In the photo-finish of the second-round runoff on 8 February, Portugal has […]

Strategic Assessment: The False Promise of a China Pivot

Executive Summary  The European Union’s emerging re-engagement with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), frequently characterised by policymakers as a pragmatic or transactional recalibration, constitutes a strategic misjudgement with compounding long-term risks. While framed as a stabilising response to transatlantic uncertainty and a means of sustaining Europe’s green and industrial transitions, the empirical record demonstrates […]

From Davos to Munich: New Geopolitical Reality Takes Flight

In our first newsletter of the month, we move from Davos to the Munich Security Conference, taking place from 13 to 15 February, right after a new plenary session of the European Parliament. If Davos is where we saw that the old rules fading, Munich is where we will see the new, harsher reality of […]

China’s Quiet Non-Wins at Davos

Executive Summary  At Davos 2026, China avoided overt confrontation and instead deployed a strategy of calculated restraint, positioning itself as a predictable and non-combative interlocuteur amid visible Western tensions. This posture may have created the appearance of quiet advantage, but did not translate into a substantive diplomatic or strategic win. Beijing largely reiterated long-standing talking […]

Berlin and Rome Rewire Europe’s Security Architecture

Executive Summary The signing of the “Agreement on Enhanced Co-operation on Security, Defence, and Resilience” in Rome on 23 January 2026, represents a fundamental shift in European power dynamics. Beyond a standard defence treaty, this document formalises a partnership focused on three high-stakes geopolitical arenas: the African continent, orbital strategic autonomy, and transnational cyber resilience. […]