On the fourth anniversary of Moscow launching a full-scale war against Ukraine, the EU is once again stuck trying to send financial aid to Kyiv and restrict business with Russia.
Help Is (Not) on the Way: Four Years of Roadblocks
Today, on 24 February 2026, marks precisely four years since the world was stricken by the news that Russian tanks crossed into Ukraine. For Ukrainians, it was the start of a fight that has redefined the political map of Europe and the world. Today, the tough battles are no longer just in the Donbas fields or the Kyiv sky, but also in the Brussels meeting rooms. As the world is reaching this rather tragic anniversary, the mood is bouncing between reflection and friction that could determine if Ukraine has the resources to make it through the year. At the centre of this problem is a €90 billion loan package, which is designed to keep the lights on in Kyiv and the ammunition flowing to the front through 2027. Agreed upon in principle late last year, the “Ukraine Support Loan” was supposed to be one of the largest testaments to the European solidarity for the anniversary and a clear signal to Moscow that the West is there to stay, like it or not.
However, that signal was disturbed on 23 February by a veto from Budapest. On top of vetoing the financial aid, Hungary, supported by Slovakia, has officially blocked the EU’s 20th package of sanctions against Russian Federation, trying to link it to a heavy dispute over the Druzhba oil pipeline. The “Friendship” pipeline has been closed since late January following Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. While Kyiv maintains they are working as fast as they can to repair the damage, Péter Szijjártó, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Hungary, has labelled the transit halt as blackmail and a hostile act. Budapest is now effectively the barrier to the 90 billion loan until Russian oil starts flowing into Hungary again.
To understand why this is happening now, it is beneficial to look past the mere issue of oil and pipeline towards the ballot box. Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán is facing a crucial parliamentary election this April, trailing the opposition leader Peter Magyar by a very significant margin. When Orban and his government start framing this as a fight for energy sovereignty and against “Kyiv’s blackmail”, the Hungarian executives are leaning into a narrative that is proven to play well at home, even if though it gives headache to the rest of the European community, and even more importantly, to the people in Ukraine.
Between the Offices and the Battlefield
The next few weeks will be critical in evaluating how the rest of the year will unfold on the battlefield. Ukraine is currently projected to face a cash shortage by the middle of this year, but the immediate budgetary needs are more pressing. In the case of this loan remaining frozen through March, we expect the EU to explore some alternative mechanisms. These would likely consist of bilateral loans or intergovernmental agreements that bypass the EU budget (and EU decision-making process) entirely, which would not be a novelty – something similar was happening in the previous year when the agreement couldn’t be reached. Furthermore, companies reliant on central European energy corridors should prepare for an unpredictable spring. Slovakia and Hungary have already threatened to cut off emergency exports of electricity to Ukraine. If the Druzhba remains inactive and electricity swaps are halted, what could happen is localised price spikes in the power markets across the region, which would affect mainly the industrial players in the Visegrad region.
The actors within the EU are frustrated, as not only could they not secure the funding, but also they failed to send a strong message they were hoping for. Failing to deliver a promised package on the war’s anniversary is a relatively serious strategic blow to the bloc’s unity and cohesion. The Commission is expected to put a huge amount of pressure on Budapest behind closed doors, potentially leveraging the release of Hungary’s own frozen cohesion funds as the ultimate negotiating chip that they have in hand. For Ukraine, this is another road bump on a long and tiring ride. For the EU, it’s a test of whether a single member state can dictate the security architecture of an entire continent. As we mark four years of the full-scale war, one of the biggest lessons remain the same: in this conflict, everything from oil to interest rates can and will be used as a weapon. And yet the war goes on…
Image Source: EC – Audiovisual Service (António Costa, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ursula von der Leyen – Brussels, Belgium – 6 March 2025 © European Union)
