A New Dawn for the EU Trade Policy: The EU-Mercosur Accord
After twenty-five years of diplomatic games, the ghost of the Mercosur trade agreement has finally materialised into a hard political reality – although this is still just the beginning. A New Dawn for the EU Trade Policy: The EU-Mercosur Accord The EU and Mercosur will sign their long-awaited trade agreement on Saturday, with European Commission […]
Breaking the Read Sea Taboo: Israel’s Recognition of Somaliland. Strategic Assessment
Executive Summary On December 26, 2025, the State of Israel executed a diplomatic maneuver that fundamentally reordered the geopolitical architecture of the Horn of Africa. By officially recognizing the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign, independent nation, Israel became the first UN member state to break a 34-year diplomatic embargo that had kept the breakaway […]
Operation Absolute Resolve and the New European Landscape
The beginning of the year was all but uneventful for Europe, with the US Operation and the subsequent fall of Maduro’s regime receiving mixed reactions from EU countries, and Cyprus assuming the Presidency of the Council. Operation Absolute Resolve and the New European Landscape The events of 3 January 2026 represent a definitive pivot point […]
The Cyprus Presidency: Breaking Down the Agenda
On 1 January 2026, the Republic of Cyprus assumed the rotating Presidency at the Council of Ministers, taking over the role from Denmark. This was the last transition of the current three-piece Presidency (consisting of Poland, Denmark and Cyprus) and comes at a moment when the Union is facing several challenges, most notably regarding competitiveness […]
US Strikes in Venezuela and the Fall of the Maduro Regime: Strategic Assessment
The events of 3 January 2026 represent a definitive pivot point in modern geopolitics. The successful execution of the attack, codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve, and the subsequent extraction of Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores have signalled the dawn of a “Restorative Era” in the Western Hemisphere. By transitioning Venezuela away from a regime defined by […]
So Close, Yet So Far Away: Prospects for Peace in Ukraine
Christmas came later in the State of Florida, and an “almost agreed” peace plan is hiding under the tree. So Close, Yet So Far Away: Prospects for Peace in Ukraine The year 2025 is drawing to a close in dramatic fashion. As many enjoy the winter break, all eyes are set on Mar-a-Lago. Donald Trump and […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The South & Southeast Asia
Diversification: EU-India and ASEAN To mitigate the China risk, 2026 will be a pivotal year for the EU’s diversification strategy. However, this will be complicated by India’s own geopolitical positioning and evolving relationship with Russia. India-Russia Strengthening Ties: The December 2025 Summit A critical development reshaping the Indo-Pacific strategic landscape is the strengthening of India-Russia […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Middle East & North Africa
Middle East: The Iran Nuclear Sunset and Geopolitical Fragmentation The year 2026 marks a critical “sunset” phase for the JCPOA and UN Resolution 2231. Key international restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program (enrichment levels, centrifuge R&D) are set to expire in late 2025 and 2026. Proliferation Crisis: This regulatory vacuum leaves the EU with limited diplomatic […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: Sub-Saharan Africa
The Sahel & Critical Minerals Sahel Instability: The “Alliance of Sahel States” (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso) has consolidated power, pivoting towards Russia for security. In 2026, continued instability or a new coup in the region could lead to a surge of migrants across the Central Mediterranean, testing the EU’s newly implemented “New Pact on Migration”. Critical Minerals Partnerships: […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Arctic
The Militarisation of the Arctic and Institutional Paralysis The Arctic, once a zone of “high north, low tension,” will face a grim reality in 2026. The region is increasingly characterised by militarisation and the breakdown of governance mechanisms. The Death of the Arctic Council: Following the suspension of meaningful cooperation with Russia – which controls over 50% of the Arctic coastline […]