Operation Absolute Resolve and the New European Landscape
The beginning of the year was all but uneventful for Europe, with the US Operation and the subsequent fall of Maduro’s regime receiving mixed reactions from EU countries, and Cyprus assuming the Presidency of the Council. Operation Absolute Resolve and the New European Landscape The events of 3 January 2026 represent a definitive pivot point […]
The Cyprus Presidency: Breaking Down the Agenda
On 1 January 2026, the Republic of Cyprus assumed the rotating Presidency at the Council of Ministers, taking over the role from Denmark. This was the last transition of the current three-piece Presidency (consisting of Poland, Denmark and Cyprus) and comes at a moment when the Union is facing several challenges, most notably regarding competitiveness […]
US Strikes in Venezuela and the Fall of the Maduro Regime: Strategic Assessment
The events of 3 January 2026 represent a definitive pivot point in modern geopolitics. The successful execution of the attack, codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve, and the subsequent extraction of Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores have signalled the dawn of a “Restorative Era” in the Western Hemisphere. By transitioning Venezuela away from a regime defined by […]
So Close, Yet So Far Away: Prospects for Peace in Ukraine
Christmas came later in the State of Florida, and an “almost agreed” peace plan is hiding under the tree. So Close, Yet So Far Away: Prospects for Peace in Ukraine The year 2025 is drawing to a close in dramatic fashion. As many enjoy the winter break, all eyes are set on Mar-a-Lago. Donald Trump and […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Arctic
The Militarisation of the Arctic and Institutional Paralysis The Arctic, once a zone of “high north, low tension,” will face a grim reality in 2026. The region is increasingly characterised by militarisation and the breakdown of governance mechanisms. The Death of the Arctic Council: Following the suspension of meaningful cooperation with Russia – which controls over 50% of the Arctic coastline […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: Transatlantic Relations
Transatlantic Trade Wars and the Tariff Shock Beyond security, 2026 is projected to be a year of intense geoeconomic friction. Global economic forecasts indicate that growth in 2025 may have been “front-loaded” as businesses raced to export goods before anticipated US tariff hikes take effect in 2026. This reflects the broader fragmentation of the global […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: Europe & The Eastern Flank
The Russia-Ukraine War: Strategic Drift and Diplomatic Pressure By 2026, the war in Ukraine is expected to have evolved from a decisive military maneuver toward a prolonged phase of attrition or coerced settlement. We anticipate stalemate persisting throughout the year, with periodic Russian offensives in the Donbas but no decisive breakthrough. However, the primary risk in 2026 is not military collapse, but diplomatic imposition. […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Balkans
Western Balkans: The Stability Trap The Western Balkans remain a persistent flashpoint. In 2026, the region is projected to see slow growth (3.2-3.4%), tempered by geopolitical risks. Serbia-Kosovo Tensions: Relations between Belgrade and Pristina are expected to flare up, potentially triggered by disputed municipal elections or the implementation of the Association of Serb Municipalities. An EU-led mediation effort will […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Americas
US Retrenchment and the “Dormant NATO” The return of an “America First” foreign policy doctrine in the US creates a high probability that Washington will withdraw or significantly degrade its presence on NATO’s eastern flank in 2026. Scenario: Partial Withdrawal B&K Agency’s assessments suggest a scenario where the US reduces its footprint to naval and […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: East Asia
The Taiwan “Limited Blockade” Scenario & The 2026 War Scenario The 2026 War Scenario: Strategic Context The US Naval War College’s Phase III scenario, published in 2023, outlines a plausible if dangerous pathway to conflict in 2026. The scenario posits that following the January 2024 Taiwan presidential election, politics in Taiwan trend further toward independence. […]