The Many Drivers Behind the AfD Vote
This past weekend’s election in Saxony-Anhalt shocked Germany with the victory of Alternative für Deutschland with more than 40% of the votes. In this newsletter, we look into the reasons behind such vote and what it means for Europe at large. Sunday’s AfD’s 43.8% victory in Saxony-Anhalt is not that easy to explain. The simplest […]
The $1 Billion Fine: EU’s First Take on US Big Tech Under the Digital Markets Act
On 23 July 2026, the European Commission adopted two decisions imposing a combined fine of €890 million on Google for non-compliance with the Digital Markets Act. The first fine, amounting to €460 million, concerns the preferential treatment of Google’s own services in Google Search. The second, amounting to €430 million, concerns restrictions preventing app developers […]
The October Reckoning: Israel’s Most Consequential Election in Decades
On 27 October, Israelis will vote for the 26th Knesset in what is often described as the most important election in the country’s history. It will be the first since the Hamas’ 7 October attack and the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran that followed. For many voters, the ballot amounts to a referendum on […]
The King of the North Goes South: Andy Burnham Is the New Prime Minister
United Kingdom gets its seventh Prime Minister in ten years as Andy Burnham enters Downing Street to stabilise a weakened Labour Party and confront Reform UK that keeps rising in polls. On 20 July, Andy Burnham went to Buckingham Palace to accept King Charles’ invitation to form a government, making him the United Kingdom’s 59th […]
Ankara-Kyiv-Washington: Ukraine’s Diplomatic Offensive
At a first glance, three developments over the past several days (a NATO summit, a government reshuffle in Kyiv, and the announcement of the Washington’s sanctions package aimed at Russia) are separate stories. Looking at them together, they follow a common theme of an alliance trying to secure more support for Ukraine as the individuals […]
The Oil Front: Ukraine’s Drone Strategy Deepens Russia’s Domestic Crisis
Ukraine’s campaign against Russian energy infrastructure has emerged as one of the most strategically consequential dimensions of the war. While previous operations largely focused on military assets, Kyiv is now systematically targeting oil refineries, storage facilities, export terminals and logistics hubs that underpin Russia’s wartime economy. The objective extends beyond disrupting military operations; it seeks […]
London Calling: Starmer’s Resignation Suggests a New Chapter in the EU-UK Relations
The United Kingdom’s Head of Government, Keir Starmer, announced his resignation on 22 June. Stepping down just two years after an important victory in 2024 parliamentary elections, Starmer leaves the Labour Party to deal with the important domestic issues more decisively and prepare for the 2029 elections as the right-wing Reform UK reaches new heights […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Arctic
The Militarisation of the Arctic and Institutional Paralysis The Arctic, once a zone of “high north, low tension,” will face a grim reality in 2026. The region is increasingly characterised by militarisation and the breakdown of governance mechanisms. The Death of the Arctic Council: Following the suspension of meaningful cooperation with Russia – which controls over 50% of the Arctic coastline […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: Transatlantic Relations
Transatlantic Trade Wars and the Tariff Shock Beyond security, 2026 is projected to be a year of intense geoeconomic friction. Global economic forecasts indicate that growth in 2025 may have been “front-loaded” as businesses raced to export goods before anticipated US tariff hikes take effect in 2026. This reflects the broader fragmentation of the global […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: Europe & The Eastern Flank
The Russia-Ukraine War: Strategic Drift and Diplomatic Pressure By 2026, the war in Ukraine is expected to have evolved from a decisive military maneuver toward a prolonged phase of attrition or coerced settlement. We anticipate stalemate persisting throughout the year, with periodic Russian offensives in the Donbas but no decisive breakthrough. However, the primary risk in 2026 is not military collapse, but diplomatic imposition. […]