Sweden’s Election: the Moderates Hold, Social Democrats Survive, and the Sweden Democrats Lose Ground
Last weekend’s election in Sweden gave a narrow edge to the centre-left, though the outcome may shift over the coming days. We can examine what occurred and what lies ahead. In every poll before the vote, the centre-right Moderata—linked to the EPP at the EU level and to the prime minister—were expected to lose up […]
The Many Drivers Behind the AfD Vote
This past weekend’s election in Saxony-Anhalt shocked Germany with the victory of Alternative für Deutschland with more than 40% of the votes. In this newsletter, we look into the reasons behind such vote and what it means for Europe at large. Sunday’s AfD’s 43.8% victory in Saxony-Anhalt is not that easy to explain. The simplest […]
South Caucasus in Focus: EU relations, Trade and Resources
As Europe and Asia search for alternative trade routes, the South Caucasus is becoming a strategic geopolitical actor. However, its potential as a connector depends on whether the region can overcome persistent bilateral disputes, divergent geopolitical alignments, and cross-border infrastructure gaps. The South Caucasus sits at the intersection of several major connectivity projects, yet geography […]
Iceland Sails Alone: No to the Eurointegration
As Iceland’s EU membership bid remains stagnant after the referendum, the voters decided to prioritise its fishing industry and national sovereignty over the security guarantees that the bloc accession would carry. On 29 August, Icelanders were asked a narrow procedural question, whether to reopen EU accession talks that the island abandoned in 2013. The turnout […]
Europe’s Energy Problem is Becoming an Industrial Problem
Europe’s energy crisis is becoming a structural competitiveness problem, raising questions about whether the EU can decarbonise without making European industry increasingly uncompetitive. Europe’s energy crisis is increasingly becoming a competitiveness problem, but the debate in Brussels is still largely framed as an energy-policy problem. The original causes of the crisis are well understood. The […]
Iceland Heads to the Polls: A Referendum that could change Europe
on July 27 Iceland opens the pooling station asking citizens to decide if they want to restart negotiations with the EU over a possible accession to the block or no. A vote that could change Europe. On 27 July, Iceland opens voting in a referendum that could mark the beginning of a new chapter in […]
The October Reckoning: Israel’s Most Consequential Election in Decades
On 27 October, Israelis will vote for the 26th Knesset in what is often described as the most important election in the country’s history. It will be the first since the Hamas’ 7 October attack and the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran that followed. For many voters, the ballot amounts to a referendum on […]
Ankara-Kyiv-Washington: Ukraine’s Diplomatic Offensive
At a first glance, three developments over the past several days (a NATO summit, a government reshuffle in Kyiv, and the announcement of the Washington’s sanctions package aimed at Russia) are separate stories. Looking at them together, they follow a common theme of an alliance trying to secure more support for Ukraine as the individuals […]
New Silk Road Rivalry: Bridging Eurasia with the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor
Two and a half years after it was announced during the 2023 G20 summit in New Delhi, the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor is still one of the most ambitious infrastructure projects in the world. In practice, it remains a memorandum of understanding rather than a functional trade route. The events of the past years, including […]
The Oil Front: Ukraine’s Drone Strategy Deepens Russia’s Domestic Crisis
Ukraine’s campaign against Russian energy infrastructure has emerged as one of the most strategically consequential dimensions of the war. While previous operations largely focused on military assets, Kyiv is now systematically targeting oil refineries, storage facilities, export terminals and logistics hubs that underpin Russia’s wartime economy. The objective extends beyond disrupting military operations; it seeks […]