Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: Transatlantic Relations
Transatlantic Trade Wars and the Tariff Shock Beyond security, 2026 is projected to be a year of intense geoeconomic friction. Global economic forecasts indicate that growth in 2025 may have been “front-loaded” as businesses raced to export goods before anticipated US tariff hikes take effect in 2026. This reflects the broader fragmentation of the global […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: Europe & The Eastern Flank
The Russia-Ukraine War: Strategic Drift and Diplomatic Pressure By 2026, the war in Ukraine is expected to have evolved from a decisive military maneuver toward a prolonged phase of attrition or coerced settlement. We anticipate stalemate persisting throughout the year, with periodic Russian offensives in the Donbas but no decisive breakthrough. However, the primary risk in 2026 is not military collapse, but diplomatic imposition. […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Balkans
Western Balkans: The Stability Trap The Western Balkans remain a persistent flashpoint. In 2026, the region is projected to see slow growth (3.2-3.4%), tempered by geopolitical risks. Serbia-Kosovo Tensions: Relations between Belgrade and Pristina are expected to flare up, potentially triggered by disputed municipal elections or the implementation of the Association of Serb Municipalities. An EU-led mediation effort will […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Americas
US Retrenchment and the “Dormant NATO” The return of an “America First” foreign policy doctrine in the US creates a high probability that Washington will withdraw or significantly degrade its presence on NATO’s eastern flank in 2026. Scenario: Partial Withdrawal B&K Agency’s assessments suggest a scenario where the US reduces its footprint to naval and […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: East Asia
The Taiwan “Limited Blockade” Scenario & The 2026 War Scenario The 2026 War Scenario: Strategic Context The US Naval War College’s Phase III scenario, published in 2023, outlines a plausible if dangerous pathway to conflict in 2026. The scenario posits that following the January 2024 Taiwan presidential election, politics in Taiwan trend further toward independence. […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Era of Forced Adaptation
The year 2026 will not be remembered for a single shock, but for the moment when accumulated pressures finally force strategic decisions that Europe has deferred for more than a decade. The post-Cold War assumption that prosperity, security, and stability could be outsourced has expired. What replaces it is a far harsher operating environment in […]
Behind the India-Russia Summit: Implications for Europe
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited New Delhi from 4–5 December 2025 for the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit. The summit took place under intense geopolitical pressure, characterised by the Trump administration’s imposition of 50% tariffs on Indian imports and specific penalties on energy trade intended to curb New Delhi’s engagement with Russia. The summit served as […]
B&K Agency presents analysis of Sudan’s security landscape at the European Parliament
This week, B&K Agency’s Director of Geopolitical Intelligence Heath Sloane shared an overview of Islamic networks in the Sudan civil war at the European Parliament, alongside Sudanese civilian advocate and a former minister in Sudan’s Transitional Government Khalid Omer Yousif. B&K Agency’s analysis uncovered an ecosystem of Islamist networks that supply ideological credibility and digital […]