The Middle East and the EU’s Seat at the Table
The conflict in the Middle East escalates after the US and Israel take decisive action in Iran for a regime change, while the EU is sidelined in crisis response as Cyprus is attacked. The Middle East and the EU’s Seat at the Table If the geopolitical world had a tipping point, it was likely crossed […]
Help Is (Not) on the Way: Four Years of Roadblocks
On the fourth anniversary of Moscow launching a full-scale war against Ukraine, the EU is once again stuck trying to send financial aid to Kyiv and restrict business with Russia. Help Is (Not) on the Way: Four Years of Roadblocks Today, on 24 February 2026, marks precisely four years since the world was stricken by the news that Russian tanks […]
Berlin and Rome Rewire Europe’s Security Architecture
Executive Summary The signing of the “Agreement on Enhanced Co-operation on Security, Defence, and Resilience” in Rome on 23 January 2026, represents a fundamental shift in European power dynamics. Beyond a standard defence treaty, this document formalises a partnership focused on three high-stakes geopolitical arenas: the African continent, orbital strategic autonomy, and transnational cyber resilience. […]
Breaking the Read Sea Taboo: Israel’s Recognition of Somaliland. Strategic Assessment
Executive Summary On December 26, 2025, the State of Israel executed a diplomatic maneuver that fundamentally reordered the geopolitical architecture of the Horn of Africa. By officially recognizing the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign, independent nation, Israel became the first UN member state to break a 34-year diplomatic embargo that had kept the breakaway […]
US Strikes in Venezuela and the Fall of the Maduro Regime: Strategic Assessment
The events of 3 January 2026 represent a definitive pivot point in modern geopolitics. The successful execution of the attack, codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve, and the subsequent extraction of Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores have signalled the dawn of a “Restorative Era” in the Western Hemisphere. By transitioning Venezuela away from a regime defined by […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The South & Southeast Asia
Diversification: EU-India and ASEAN To mitigate the China risk, 2026 will be a pivotal year for the EU’s diversification strategy. However, this will be complicated by India’s own geopolitical positioning and evolving relationship with Russia. India-Russia Strengthening Ties: The December 2025 Summit A critical development reshaping the Indo-Pacific strategic landscape is the strengthening of India-Russia […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Middle East & North Africa
Middle East: The Iran Nuclear Sunset and Geopolitical Fragmentation The year 2026 marks a critical “sunset” phase for the JCPOA and UN Resolution 2231. Key international restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program (enrichment levels, centrifuge R&D) are set to expire in late 2025 and 2026. Proliferation Crisis: This regulatory vacuum leaves the EU with limited diplomatic […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: Sub-Saharan Africa
The Sahel & Critical Minerals Sahel Instability: The “Alliance of Sahel States” (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso) has consolidated power, pivoting towards Russia for security. In 2026, continued instability or a new coup in the region could lead to a surge of migrants across the Central Mediterranean, testing the EU’s newly implemented “New Pact on Migration”. Critical Minerals Partnerships: […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Arctic
The Militarisation of the Arctic and Institutional Paralysis The Arctic, once a zone of “high north, low tension,” will face a grim reality in 2026. The region is increasingly characterised by militarisation and the breakdown of governance mechanisms. The Death of the Arctic Council: Following the suspension of meaningful cooperation with Russia – which controls over 50% of the Arctic coastline […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: Transatlantic Relations
Transatlantic Trade Wars and the Tariff Shock Beyond security, 2026 is projected to be a year of intense geoeconomic friction. Global economic forecasts indicate that growth in 2025 may have been “front-loaded” as businesses raced to export goods before anticipated US tariff hikes take effect in 2026. This reflects the broader fragmentation of the global […]