Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: East Asia
The Taiwan “Limited Blockade” Scenario & The 2026 War Scenario The 2026 War Scenario: Strategic Context The US Naval War College’s Phase III scenario, published in 2023, outlines a plausible if dangerous pathway to conflict in 2026. The scenario posits that following the January 2024 Taiwan presidential election, politics in Taiwan trend further toward independence. […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The South & Southeast Asia
Diversification: EU-India and ASEAN To mitigate the China risk, 2026 will be a pivotal year for the EU’s diversification strategy. However, this will be complicated by India’s own geopolitical positioning and evolving relationship with Russia. India-Russia Strengthening Ties: The December 2025 Summit A critical development reshaping the Indo-Pacific strategic landscape is the strengthening of India-Russia […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Middle East & North Africa
Middle East: The Iran Nuclear Sunset and Geopolitical Fragmentation The year 2026 marks a critical “sunset” phase for the JCPOA and UN Resolution 2231. Key international restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program (enrichment levels, centrifuge R&D) are set to expire in late 2025 and 2026. Proliferation Crisis: This regulatory vacuum leaves the EU with limited diplomatic […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: Sub-Saharan Africa
The Sahel & Critical Minerals Sahel Instability: The “Alliance of Sahel States” (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso) has consolidated power, pivoting towards Russia for security. In 2026, continued instability or a new coup in the region could lead to a surge of migrants across the Central Mediterranean, testing the EU’s newly implemented “New Pact on Migration”. Critical Minerals Partnerships: […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Era of Forced Adaptation
The year 2026 will not be remembered for a single shock, but for the moment when accumulated pressures finally force strategic decisions that Europe has deferred for more than a decade. The post-Cold War assumption that prosperity, security, and stability could be outsourced has expired. What replaces it is a far harsher operating environment in […]
Behind the India-Russia Summit: Implications for Europe
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited New Delhi from 4–5 December 2025 for the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit. The summit took place under intense geopolitical pressure, characterised by the Trump administration’s imposition of 50% tariffs on Indian imports and specific penalties on energy trade intended to curb New Delhi’s engagement with Russia. The summit served as […]
B&K Agency presents analysis of Sudan’s security landscape at the European Parliament
This week, B&K Agency’s Director of Geopolitical Intelligence Heath Sloane shared an overview of Islamic networks in the Sudan civil war at the European Parliament, alongside Sudanese civilian advocate and a former minister in Sudan’s Transitional Government Khalid Omer Yousif. B&K Agency’s analysis uncovered an ecosystem of Islamist networks that supply ideological credibility and digital […]