The Munich Stress-Test: The New World Is Emerging
Yet another Munich Security Conference is behind us, and these were the key events that took place over the course of last weekend. The Munich Stress-Test: The New World Is Emerging The halls of the Hotel Bayerischer Hof are usually filled with the polite hum of strategic patience. This year, at the 2026 Munich Security […]
Portugal Chooses a Left-Leaning President – What’s Next?
After three weeks of uncertainty between rounds one and two of Portuguese presidential elections, a moderate candidate scored a win against his right-wing opponent, but what does that mean for the country and the Continent? Portugal Chooses a Left-Leaning President – What’s Next? In the photo-finish of the second-round runoff on 8 February, Portugal has […]
Berlin and Rome Rewire Europe’s Security Architecture
Executive Summary The signing of the “Agreement on Enhanced Co-operation on Security, Defence, and Resilience” in Rome on 23 January 2026, represents a fundamental shift in European power dynamics. Beyond a standard defence treaty, this document formalises a partnership focused on three high-stakes geopolitical arenas: the African continent, orbital strategic autonomy, and transnational cyber resilience. […]
The Commission Unveils the New Cybersecurity Act
On 20 January, the European Commission unveiled a proposal for the new Cybersecurity Act, signaling a switch in how the Union views the digital component of its economy. While the original 2019 Cybersecurity Act was characterised by a focus on softer measures, including voluntary certification schemes and the institutional strengthening of European Agency for Cybersecurity, this revised version is a far more assertive legislative instrument. […]
The Digital Networks Act: A Single Framework for Digital Connectivity
The Digital Networks Act, which is being unveiled in January 2026 by the European Commission, is the European Union’s attempt to pull together all the main standards that govern digital connectivity into one single, predictable framework. This will be the beginning of a lengthy process towards final approval, which we can expect in about a […]
The Cyprus Presidency: Breaking Down the Agenda
On 1 January 2026, the Republic of Cyprus assumed the rotating Presidency at the Council of Ministers, taking over the role from Denmark. This was the last transition of the current three-piece Presidency (consisting of Poland, Denmark and Cyprus) and comes at a moment when the Union is facing several challenges, most notably regarding competitiveness […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: Transatlantic Relations
Transatlantic Trade Wars and the Tariff Shock Beyond security, 2026 is projected to be a year of intense geoeconomic friction. Global economic forecasts indicate that growth in 2025 may have been “front-loaded” as businesses raced to export goods before anticipated US tariff hikes take effect in 2026. This reflects the broader fragmentation of the global […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: Europe & The Eastern Flank
The Russia-Ukraine War: Strategic Drift and Diplomatic Pressure By 2026, the war in Ukraine is expected to have evolved from a decisive military maneuver toward a prolonged phase of attrition or coerced settlement. We anticipate stalemate persisting throughout the year, with periodic Russian offensives in the Donbas but no decisive breakthrough. However, the primary risk in 2026 is not military collapse, but diplomatic imposition. […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Balkans
Western Balkans: The Stability Trap The Western Balkans remain a persistent flashpoint. In 2026, the region is projected to see slow growth (3.2-3.4%), tempered by geopolitical risks. Serbia-Kosovo Tensions: Relations between Belgrade and Pristina are expected to flare up, potentially triggered by disputed municipal elections or the implementation of the Association of Serb Municipalities. An EU-led mediation effort will […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Americas
US Retrenchment and the “Dormant NATO” The return of an “America First” foreign policy doctrine in the US creates a high probability that Washington will withdraw or significantly degrade its presence on NATO’s eastern flank in 2026. Scenario: Partial Withdrawal B&K Agency’s assessments suggest a scenario where the US reduces its footprint to naval and […]