Defence, Energy and Copyright: In the Spotlight of This Week’s Plenary Session
The MEPs will have a rather packed schedule this week, tackling topics such as energy, defence, technology, copyright, and geopolitical uncertainties. Defence, Energy and Copyright: In the Spotlight of This Week’s Plenary Session This week, the European Parliament gathers in Strasbourg from Monday to Thursday for a plenary session that will touch upon a myriad […]
The Middle East and the EU’s Seat at the Table
The conflict in the Middle East escalates after the US and Israel take decisive action in Iran for a regime change, while the EU is sidelined in crisis response as Cyprus is attacked. The Middle East and the EU’s Seat at the Table If the geopolitical world had a tipping point, it was likely crossed […]
Help Is (Not) on the Way: Four Years of Roadblocks
On the fourth anniversary of Moscow launching a full-scale war against Ukraine, the EU is once again stuck trying to send financial aid to Kyiv and restrict business with Russia. Help Is (Not) on the Way: Four Years of Roadblocks Today, on 24 February 2026, marks precisely four years since the world was stricken by the news that Russian tanks […]
Berlin and Rome Rewire Europe’s Security Architecture
Executive Summary The signing of the “Agreement on Enhanced Co-operation on Security, Defence, and Resilience” in Rome on 23 January 2026, represents a fundamental shift in European power dynamics. Beyond a standard defence treaty, this document formalises a partnership focused on three high-stakes geopolitical arenas: the African continent, orbital strategic autonomy, and transnational cyber resilience. […]
Breaking the Read Sea Taboo: Israel’s Recognition of Somaliland. Strategic Assessment
Executive Summary On December 26, 2025, the State of Israel executed a diplomatic maneuver that fundamentally reordered the geopolitical architecture of the Horn of Africa. By officially recognizing the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign, independent nation, Israel became the first UN member state to break a 34-year diplomatic embargo that had kept the breakaway […]
US Strikes in Venezuela and the Fall of the Maduro Regime: Strategic Assessment
The events of 3 January 2026 represent a definitive pivot point in modern geopolitics. The successful execution of the attack, codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve, and the subsequent extraction of Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores have signalled the dawn of a “Restorative Era” in the Western Hemisphere. By transitioning Venezuela away from a regime defined by […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: Europe & The Eastern Flank
The Russia-Ukraine War: Strategic Drift and Diplomatic Pressure By 2026, the war in Ukraine is expected to have evolved from a decisive military maneuver toward a prolonged phase of attrition or coerced settlement. We anticipate stalemate persisting throughout the year, with periodic Russian offensives in the Donbas but no decisive breakthrough. However, the primary risk in 2026 is not military collapse, but diplomatic imposition. […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Balkans
Western Balkans: The Stability Trap The Western Balkans remain a persistent flashpoint. In 2026, the region is projected to see slow growth (3.2-3.4%), tempered by geopolitical risks. Serbia-Kosovo Tensions: Relations between Belgrade and Pristina are expected to flare up, potentially triggered by disputed municipal elections or the implementation of the Association of Serb Municipalities. An EU-led mediation effort will […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Americas
US Retrenchment and the “Dormant NATO” The return of an “America First” foreign policy doctrine in the US creates a high probability that Washington will withdraw or significantly degrade its presence on NATO’s eastern flank in 2026. Scenario: Partial Withdrawal B&K Agency’s assessments suggest a scenario where the US reduces its footprint to naval and […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: East Asia
The Taiwan “Limited Blockade” Scenario & The 2026 War Scenario The 2026 War Scenario: Strategic Context The US Naval War College’s Phase III scenario, published in 2023, outlines a plausible if dangerous pathway to conflict in 2026. The scenario posits that following the January 2024 Taiwan presidential election, politics in Taiwan trend further toward independence. […]