Iran’s Black Swan Moment. Strategic Assessment
Executive Summary Iran is currently navigating its most profound period of domestic instability since the 1979 revolution. This wave of unrest was precipitated by a catastrophic systemic economic failure and the geopolitical repercussions of the “12-Day War” with Israel in mid-2025. What began as localised demonstrations on 28 December 2025 has rapidly transitioned into a comprehensive nationwide […]
Breaking the Read Sea Taboo: Israel’s Recognition of Somaliland. Strategic Assessment
Executive Summary On December 26, 2025, the State of Israel executed a diplomatic maneuver that fundamentally reordered the geopolitical architecture of the Horn of Africa. By officially recognizing the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign, independent nation, Israel became the first UN member state to break a 34-year diplomatic embargo that had kept the breakaway […]
The Cyprus Presidency: Breaking Down the Agenda
On 1 January 2026, the Republic of Cyprus assumed the rotating Presidency at the Council of Ministers, taking over the role from Denmark. This was the last transition of the current three-piece Presidency (consisting of Poland, Denmark and Cyprus) and comes at a moment when the Union is facing several challenges, most notably regarding competitiveness […]
US Strikes in Venezuela and the Fall of the Maduro Regime: Strategic Assessment
The events of 3 January 2026 represent a definitive pivot point in modern geopolitics. The successful execution of the attack, codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve, and the subsequent extraction of Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores have signalled the dawn of a “Restorative Era” in the Western Hemisphere. By transitioning Venezuela away from a regime defined by […]
Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: The Arctic
The Militarisation of the Arctic and Institutional Paralysis The Arctic, once a zone of “high north, low tension,” will face a grim reality in 2026. The region is increasingly characterised by militarisation and the breakdown of governance mechanisms. The Death of the Arctic Council: Following the suspension of meaningful cooperation with Russia – which controls over 50% of the Arctic coastline […]
Geopolitical Outlook 2026
The year 2026 represents a definitive inflection point for the European Union. The global dynamics shifts now project 2026 to be the year of “Forced Adaptation.”
How Is Europe Regulating Generative AI and Copyright?
The global AI market is projected to skyrocket to over $1.3 trillion in the next five years. But beneath that value lies an unresolved conflict: the battle over generative AI and copyright as we know it today. AI models train on billions of works, so who should get paid? Who gets to call themselves a creator? The answer is being discussed right now in Europe. The European […]